瑞达期货合成橡胶产业日报-20251204

Summary of Key Points 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The butadiene rubber market this week was mainly affected by news factors of natural rubber and butadiene. With no clear positive factors in the supply - demand fundamentals, downstream continuous price - pressing led to weak trading performance. The inventory of sample production enterprises increased, while that of sample trading enterprises decreased slightly. As the production of previously - overhauled enterprises gradually returned to normal, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises increased week - on - week, but the shipment pace of each tire enterprise was slow. In the short term, the production control behavior of enterprises still exists, and the increase in the overall capacity utilization rate is expected to be limited. The br2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,400 - 10,900 in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber was 10,455 yuan/ton, a decrease of 120 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract was 32,069, a decrease of 6,917; the 1 - 2 spread of synthetic rubber was 5 yuan/ton, unchanged; the number of warehouse receipts of butadiene rubber was 3,340 tons, a decrease of 10 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong was 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; that from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong was 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; that from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai was 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; that from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong was 10,700 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of synthetic rubber was - 25 yuan/ton, an increase of 110 yuan/ton. Brent crude oil was 62.67 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 0.22 US dollars/barrel; naphtha CFR Japan was 567.25 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.25 US dollars/ton; Northeast Asian ethylene price was 740 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China was 820 US dollars/ton, unchanged; WTI crude oil was 58.95 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 0.31 US dollars/barrel; the mainstream price of butadiene in Shandong market was 7,425 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly capacity of butadiene was 15.94 million tons/week, unchanged; the capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 70.97%, a decrease of 1.56 percentage points; the port inventory of butadiene was 47,300 tons, an increase of 7,500 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation was 54.99%, an increase of 0.73 percentage points; the monthly output of butadiene rubber was 137,600 tons, an increase of 7,200 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber was 70.19%, a decrease of 2.45 percentage points; the weekly production profit of butadiene rubber was 434 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton; the social inventory of butadiene rubber was 32,400 tons, an increase of 900 tons; the manufacturer inventory of butadiene rubber was 26,900 tons, an increase of 270 tons; the trader inventory of butadiene rubber was 5,540 tons, an increase of 660 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires was 69.19%, a decrease of 0.86 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires was 63.33%, an increase of 1.08 percentage points; the monthly output of all - steel tires was 12.42 million pieces, a decrease of 720,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 51.68 million pieces, a decrease of 8.57 million pieces; the inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong was 39.95 days, a decrease of 0.29 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong was 45.23 days, a decrease of 0.63 days [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of December 4, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 68.33%, a week - on - week increase of 2.33 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.59 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64%, a week - on - week increase of 1.25 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.87 percentage points. The production of overhauled sample enterprises gradually resumed during the week, driving the overall capacity utilization rate. In November, the domestic butadiene rubber output was 130,100 tons, a decrease of 7,500 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 5.44% and a year - on - year increase of 8.43%. The capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber in November was 68.13%, a decrease of 3.27 percentage points from the previous month and an increase of 0.53 percentage points from the same period last year. As of December 4, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory was 32,300 tons, a decrease of 100 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 0.34%. Some tight - supply spot resources were replenished this period. However, due to continuous downstream price - pressing, the trading performance was weak [2]