瑞达期货尿素产业日报-20251204

Report Overview - Report Title: Urea Industry Daily Report 2025-12-04 [1] - Researcher: Lin Jingyi [2] - Futures Qualification Number: F03139610 [2] - Investment Consultation Certificate Number: Z0021558 [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Report's Core View - The inventory of domestic urea enterprises continued to decline this week, driven by the replenishment of previous reserve demand, the recovery of compound fertilizer industrial demand, and the promotion of some export demand. Considering the supply reduction caused by the shutdown of some gas - head enterprises and the continuous advancement of downstream reserve demand, the inventory of urea enterprises is expected to continue to decline slightly in the short term. The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1660 - 1720 in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Zhengzhou urea contract was 1688 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread was - 57 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan [2] - The position of the main Zhengzhou urea contract was 209,271 lots, down 282 lots; the net position of the top 20 was - 18,433 lots, up 4,195 lots [2] - The number of Zhengzhou urea exchange warehouse receipts was 9,353, up 1,588 [2] 3.2现货市场 - The spot prices in Hebei, Jiangsu, and Shandong remained unchanged at 1710, 1680, and 1680 yuan/ton respectively; the prices in Henan and Anhui increased by 10 yuan/ton to 1690 yuan/ton [2] - The FOB prices in the Baltic and Chinese main ports remained unchanged at 357.5 and 397.5 US dollars/ton respectively [2] - The basis of the main Zhengzhou urea contract was - 12 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - The port inventory was 100,000 tons, unchanged; the enterprise inventory was 1.2905 million tons, down 73,400 tons [2] - The urea enterprise operating rate was 83.71%, down 0.2%; the daily urea output was 202,400 tons, down 500 tons [2] - The urea export volume was 1.2 million tons, down 17%; the monthly urea output was 5.87127 million tons, up 132,600 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate was 37.06%, up 2.45%; the melamine operating rate was 60.8%, down 1.4% [2] - The weekly profit of compound fertilizer in China was 44 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan; the weekly profit of melamine with externally - purchased urea was 100 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2] - The monthly output of compound fertilizer was 3.6287 million tons, down 1.0331 million tons; the weekly output of melamine was 31,500 tons, down 500 tons [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of December 3, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.2905 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 73,400 tons or 5.38% [2] - As of December 4, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 105,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5,000 tons or 5%. The current export has a continuous expectation of container shipping, but the container shipping rhythm is still slow [2] - As of December 4, due to the maintenance of some new urea production devices, the domestic urea output continued to decline. It is expected that 2 enterprises' devices will stop production next week, and 3 - 5 stopped enterprises' devices may resume production [2] 3.6 View Summary - The output of urea enterprises was 1.3851 million tons, down 31,900 tons or 2.25% from the previous period; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese urea production enterprises was 81.83%, down 1.88% from the previous period [2] - The compound fertilizer operating rate increased month - on - month, and enterprises continued to produce winter - storage fertilizers. The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers is expected to increase slightly in the short term. With the implementation of a new batch of quotas, export demand is gradually increasing [2] 3.7提示关注 - Pay attention to Longzhong's enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate on Thursday [2]