2025年12月资产配置报告：由守转攻，布局高景气

Macro Strategy Overview - The report indicates a transition from a defensive to an offensive investment strategy, focusing on sectors with high growth potential as the market stabilizes [1][5] - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of gradual cooling, with expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December, maintaining a loose liquidity environment [4][20] - Domestic economic pressures are increasing, with a forecasted GDP growth rate of around 4.5% for Q4, while the annual target of 5% remains achievable [4][25] Domestic Economic Environment - Domestic consumption and investment are experiencing downward pressure, with retail sales growth slowing to 2.9% in October [28][33] - Fixed asset investment growth has declined to -1.7% year-to-date, influenced by anti-involution policies and excess capacity [38] - Industrial production showed a slight recovery, but overall demand remains weak, impacting growth [28][38] A-Share Market Strategy - The A-share market is expected to shift towards a more optimistic outlook, with a focus on technology and growth sectors as the market stabilizes [5][6] - The report suggests that December is a favorable time for positioning in sectors with improving growth prospects, particularly in technology and growth-oriented industries [5][6] - The report highlights the importance of a diversified asset allocation strategy, including global equities and commodities, to mitigate risks [6][60] Sector Performance - In November, the A-share market saw a general decline, with technology sectors experiencing significant drops while traditional sectors like textiles and banking showed resilience [10][12] - The report notes that the technology growth sectors, such as AI and semiconductors, are expected to present investment opportunities as the market approaches the spring rally [5][12] - The report emphasizes the need to monitor sector rotation and the performance of high-dividend stocks as market conditions evolve [60]