瑞达期货沪镍产业日报-20251204

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report predicts that Shanghai nickel will experience short - term shock adjustments, and investors should pay attention to the resistance level of 119,000 [3]. - In the macro - aspect, the ADP in the US unexpectedly declined in November, with employment decreasing by 32,000, the largest drop since March 2023, and small - business unemployment soared. The US ISM services PMI index in November rose to 52.6, a nine - month high [3]. - In the fundamental aspect, the nickel ore imports are on a downward trend as the Philippines enters the rainy season. The RKAB approval in Indonesia and possible export policy changes are potential variables but have limited impact on supply recently. The nickel - iron production in Indonesia remains high, and the quantity flowing back to China is expected to increase. Multiple new refined nickel projects in China and Indonesia are being put into production one after another. Although some production has been cut due to shortages of intermediate raw materials and profit losses, the production is still at a high level, and the supply pressure in the pure nickel market is relatively large [3]. - On the demand side, the cost of nickel - iron for stainless steel has decreased, the profit of steel mills has improved, and the production volume is expected to be at a high level. The production and sales of new - energy vehicles continue to rise, and ternary batteries contribute a small amount of incremental demand [3]. - In terms of inventory, domestic nickel inventory continues to increase, and the market mainly purchases according to demand, with the spot premium rising. The LME inventory overseas also shows an increasing trend [3]. - Technically, the position remains stable while the price is adjusting, and the divergence between long and short positions increases [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 117,760 yuan/ton, a decrease of 110 yuan/ton compared to the previous period. The price difference between the 01 - 02 contracts of Shanghai nickel is - 180 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton [3]. - The price of LME 3 - month nickel is 14,875 US dollars/ton, an increase of 135 US dollars/ton. The position of the main contract of Shanghai nickel is 118,041 lots, a decrease of 577 lots [3]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is - 27,672 lots, an increase of 539 lots. The LME nickel inventory is 252,990 tons, a decrease of 84 tons [3]. - The inventory of nickel in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 40,782 tons, an increase of 987 tons. The total cancelled warrants of LME nickel are 8,436 tons, a decrease of 156 tons [3]. - The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai nickel is 35,096 tons, an increase of 2,501 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of SMM 1 nickel is 120,400 yuan/ton, an increase of 400 yuan/ton. The average spot price of 1 nickel plate in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 120,400 yuan/ton, an increase of 300 yuan/ton [3]. - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, with no change. The bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, with no change [3]. - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 27,500 yuan/ton, with no change. The basis of the main NI contract is 2,640 yuan/ton, an increase of 510 yuan/ton [3]. - The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 196.14 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1.33 US dollars/ton [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of nickel ore is 4682,800 tons per month, a decrease of 1431,700 tons. The total port inventory of nickel ore is 1,4873,300 tons per week, a decrease of 124,300 tons [3]. - The average import unit price of nickel ore is 57.33 US dollars/ton, an increase of 0.61 US dollars/ton. The tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, with no change [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons. The total monthly output of nickel - iron is 22,900 metal tons, an increase of 1,200 metal tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 180 tons, an increase of 9939.65 tons. The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 59.76 tons, a decrease of 18.02 tons [3]. - The total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 90.51 tons, an increase of 1.23 tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - On December 3, the State Council conducted the 17th special study with the theme of "Deeply promoting people - centered new - type urbanization and striving to build a new pattern of integrated urban - rural development". Li Qiang pointed out that new - type urbanization is an important carrier for expanding domestic demand, promoting industrial upgrading, and strengthening the domestic cycle [3]. - The ADP in the US unexpectedly declined in November, with employment decreasing by 32,000, the largest drop since March 2023, and small - business unemployment soared. The US ISM services PMI index in November rose to 52.6, a nine - month high, with an expected value of 52.0 [3].