China Securities·2025-12-04 14:25Investment Rating - The report indicates a "downgrade" for the coal mining sector, suggesting it is "weaker than the market" [5]. Core Insights - The coking coal and coke markets are weakening, transitioning into an off-peak season, with coking coal prices declining, providing room for downstream coke price reductions. Steel mills are cautious in their procurement, focusing on inventory consumption. Following the completion of the fourth round of price increases, major steel mills have initiated the first round of price reductions for coke, expected to take effect on December 1 [1][2]. - The thermal coal market is also weakening, characterized by a "weak demand and increased supply" scenario, leading to downward pressure on prices. Supply remains stable, but price support is loosening, with high inventory levels at ports and cautious procurement behavior from consumers [1][2]. Summary by Sections Coking Coal - Prices for coking coal have decreased, with the low-sulfur coking coal price at 1400 RMB/ton, down 3% week-on-week. The total coking coal inventory at sampled coking plants is 10.1 million tons, also down 3% and at a historically low level [3][4]. Coke - The closing price for coke at ports is 1670 RMB/ton, unchanged from the previous week. The total inventory of coke across coking plants, steel mills, and ports is 9.01 million tons, down 1% [4]. Thermal Coal - The average price index for thermal coal in the Bohai Rim is 698 RMB/ton, stable compared to last week. Newcastle thermal coal price is 112.9 USD/ton, down 1%. The supply from 17 inland provinces is 3.51 million tons, up 2%, while the supply from eight coastal provinces is 2.11 million tons, up 10%. Inland coal inventory stands at 102 million tons, up 1%, and coastal inventory is 3.454 million tons, up 3% [4][2].