农产品早报-20251205

Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report 2. Core Views - Corn prices will remain strong in the short - term due to low supply and downstream restocking demand, and may start a new upward cycle in the medium - to - long term after the release of farmers' selling pressure [3] - Starch prices are under pressure in the short - term due to high inventory, and downstream consumption rhythm is the key factor for medium - to - long - term price trends [3] - For sugar, maintain a high - short strategy as the global and domestic supply is loose, but the short - term downward space is limited [7] - Cotton is suitable for long - term long positions as new cotton production is estimated to decline and the external environment for textile exports has improved [8] - The future decline rate of egg inventory depends on the culling rhythm, and the culling rhythm has slightly accelerated in the past two weeks [11] - Apple prices are short - term bearish as the market is well - stocked and good - quality goods are scarce after a recent rally [16] - For pigs, there are expectations of both increased supply and demand before the Spring Festival, but the supply and inventory pressure is still large, and the market is waiting for the peak season test [16] 3. Summary of Each Product Corn/Starch - Price Changes: From 2025/11/28 to 2025/12/04, corn prices in some regions changed (e.g.,锦州 up 10), and the corn basis decreased by 18, while the import profit increased by 26. Starch basis decreased by 28, and processing profit decreased by 20 [2] - Market Analysis: Short - term corn prices are strong due to supply shortage and restocking demand; starch prices are under pressure from high inventory [3] Sugar - Price Changes: From 2025/11/28 to 2025/12/04, sugar prices in some regions decreased (e.g.,柳州 down 20), and the basis increased by 18 [6] - Market Analysis: Short - term Zhengzhou sugar is more affected by policies than the foreign market, and in the long - term, domestic sugar costs may be impacted by imported sugar. Maintain a high - short strategy [7] Cotton/Cotton Yarn - Price Changes: From 2025/11/28 to 2025/12/04, the price of 3128 cotton increased by 15, and the number of cotton warehouse receipts + forecasts increased by 496 [8] - Market Analysis: New cotton production is expected to decline, and the external environment for textile exports has improved, making it suitable for long - term long positions [8] Eggs - Price Changes: From 2025/11/28 to 2025/12/04, egg prices in some regions remained stable or decreased slightly (e.g.,湖北 down 0.06), and the basis increased by 7 [11] - Market Analysis: The egg inventory inflection point has appeared, and the future decline rate depends on the culling rhythm, which has slightly accelerated recently [11] Apples - Price Changes: From 2025/11/28 to 2025/12/04, apple prices remained stable, and the national inventory decreased by 1.00 [15][16] - Market Analysis: The national apple storage is basically completed, with a lower storage rate than last year. The market is short - term bearish [16] Pigs - Price Changes: From 2025/11/28 to 2025/12/04, pig prices in some regions changed slightly, and the basis increased by 155 [16] - Market Analysis: There are expectations of both increased supply and demand before the Spring Festival, but the supply and inventory pressure is large, and the market is waiting for the peak season test [16]