《能源化工》日报-20251205

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Crude Oil - Short - term oil prices may be boosted by the decline in Kazakhstan's oil and gas condensate production and the stalemate in Russia - Ukraine negotiations, but the upside is limited due to the weak supply - demand pattern. Brent may trade in the range of $60 - 65 per barrel [1]. Natural Rubber - With falling Thai raw material prices, increasing overseas supply expectations, weakening cost support, and poor terminal demand, rubber prices are expected to be weak and volatile [3]. Methanol - In the port area, the sentiment is weakening due to Iranian plant shutdowns, high shipping volumes, and warrant registration. Inland supply is increasing, but profits are weak. Traditional downstream demand provides some support, forming a bottom - price support [5]. Polyolefins - Both polyethylene and polypropylene show a pattern of increasing supply and weakening demand, with cost support and inventory pressure coexisting [9]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX is expected to be in high - level shock in the short term, PTA is expected to be in high - level shock in the short term and a positive spread for TA5 - 9 at a low level, MEG is expected to trade between 3800 - 4000 yuan/ton in the short term, short - fiber processing fees will continue to be compressed, and bottle - chip inventory is likely to accumulate seasonally [11]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda prices are expected to be weak, and short positions can be held. PVC supply pressure remains high, demand is weak, and the price is expected to remain weak at the bottom [12]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash is expected to be in a bottom - shock pattern. Glass prices may be strong in the short term but will face pressure in December [13]. Benzene - Styrene - BZ2603 is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term, and EB01 is expected to be in wide - range shock [14]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Price and Spread: On December 4, Brent rose 0.94% to $63.26 per barrel, WTI rose 1.22% to $59.67 per barrel, and SC rose 0.45% to 451.30 yuan per barrel. Some spreads also showed significant changes [1]. Natural Rubber - Spot Price and Basis: On December 4, the price of Yunnan Guofu full - latex rubber (SCRWF) dropped 1.35% to 14650 yuan/ton, and the full - latex basis dropped 8.33% [3]. - Monthly Spread: The 1 - 5 spread increased 150.00% to 50 yuan/ton [3]. - Production and Inventory: In September, Thailand's production decreased 0.29%, and Indonesia's decreased 1.53%. Tire production and exports in October decreased. Inventory showed an increasing trend [3]. Methanol - Price and Spread: On December 4, MA2601 closed at 2113 yuan/ton, down 0.70%. Some spreads also changed [5]. - Inventory: Methanol enterprise, port, and social inventories all decreased [5]. - Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates: Some upstream and downstream operating rates increased, while some decreased [5]. Polyolefins - Price and Spread: On December 4, L2601 closed at 6776 yuan/ton, down 0.47%. Some spreads changed [9]. - Inventory: PE and PP enterprise and social inventories decreased [9]. - Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates: PE and PP device operating rates and downstream weighted operating rates showed different trends [9]. Polyester Industry Chain - Upstream and Downstream Prices: On December 4, Brent crude oil (February) rose 0.9% to $63.26 per barrel, and some downstream polyester product prices decreased [11]. - PX - Related: CFR China PX dropped 0.4% to $842 per ton, and some spreads changed. PX is expected to be in high - level shock [11]. - PTA - Related: PTA East China spot price dropped 0.2% to 4690 yuan/ton. PTA is expected to be in high - level shock [11]. - MEG - Related: MEG East China spot price dropped 0.5% to 3855 yuan/ton. MEG is expected to trade in the range of 3800 - 4000 yuan/ton [11]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Spot and Futures Prices: On December 4, Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda equivalent price was unchanged at 2281.3 yuan/ton, and East China calcium - carbide - based PVC market price dropped 0.9% to 4460 yuan/ton [12]. - Overseas Quotes and Export Profits: FOB East China port caustic soda price rose 1.3% to $380 per ton, and PVC export profit decreased [12]. - Supply and Demand: Caustic soda production and demand are under pressure, and PVC supply pressure is high with weak demand [12]. Glass and Soda Ash - Price and Spread: On December 4, North China glass quote was unchanged at 1070 yuan/ton, and North China soda ash quote was unchanged at 1300 yuan/ton [13]. - Supply: Soda ash production decreased, and glass melting volume decreased slightly [13]. - Inventory: Glass factory inventory and soda ash factory and delivery warehouse inventories decreased [13]. Benzene - Styrene - Upstream Price and Spread: On December 4, Brent crude oil (February) rose 0.9% to $63.26 per barrel, and CFR China pure benzene rose 0.4% to $675 per ton [14]. - Styrene - Related Price and Spread: Styrene East China spot price rose 0.3% to 6720 yuan/ton, and some spreads changed [14]. - Inventory and Operating Rate: Pure benzene Jiangsu port inventory increased 36.6% to 22.40 tons, and some operating rates changed [14].