《农产品》日报-20251205

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Pig Industry - Pig prices are at a low level and continue to bottom out. The market supply remains in a loose pattern, and downstream slaughterhouses' procurement is relatively smooth. There is an expected increase in December's pig出栏量, and the supply pressure from large - scale pig farms is increasing. The downward space is limited, and the fat - lean price difference is slightly adjusted. The second - fattening is cautious to enter the market, and there is no selling pressure from small and medium - sized farmers for now. The futures market is slightly at a premium to the spot market. The supply - side pressure may be less than previously expected, and sentiment has a greater impact, but the demand lacks highlights, and the tug - of - war between upstream and downstream continues. The logic of capacity reduction in the futures market is still being traded. The strategy of inter - month arbitrage can be held, and the spot market still exerts pressure, so the single - side price is expected to continue to bottom out [2]. Meal Industry - The domestic soybean meal market remains in a loose pattern, and it is difficult to see an upward trend in the single - side market. The supply in January and February is basically guaranteed, and the uncertainty lies in whether the procurement of US soybeans can meet the arrival of soybeans in China in March. Continue to pay attention to the trends of domestic procurement of US and Brazilian soybeans. Soybean meal is expected to maintain a volatile trend, and short - term trading is dull [4]. Oil Industry - For palm oil, it is dragged down by the potential negative factor of inventory increasing to 2.7 million tons and the weakening of the US soybean oil futures in the external market. The Malaysian palm oil may fluctuate horizontally around 4,100 ringgit in the short term. Pay close attention to the impact of production, export, and inventory news on the market. The Dalian palm oil futures market maintains a weak and volatile trend, facing resistance at 8,800 yuan, and there is a possibility and risk of a short - term break below. Pay close attention to whether the Dalian palm oil futures can stop falling effectively in the range of 8,350 - 8,500 yuan and then strengthen again following the Malaysian palm oil trend. For soybean oil, the demand from the US renewable fuel industry for soybean oil remains resilient. In the short term, due to the progress in the US - Russia negotiation, the decline in international crude oil may drag down the CBOT soybean oil, and there is some room for correction. In the domestic market, the supply of soybeans in the fourth quarter is sufficient, with an estimated import volume of 9.5 million tons in December. Factories will maintain a high operating rate, and the domestic soybean oil supply pattern remains abundant. Some traders are more willing to sell, which drags down the basis quotation, but the basis quotation has limited short - term fluctuation space due to the support of soybean import costs and traders' procurement costs [5]. Corn Industry - In the corn market, the arrival volume in the Northeast region continues to shrink, and the enthusiasm for replenishing stocks at all levels increases. Coupled with policy support for storage and the rising futures and port prices, the prices in the production area are pushed up. In the North China region, farmers sell for profit, and the external transportation increases slightly. The number of arriving vehicles remains high, and the price fluctuates slightly. Overall, the corn supply is in a short - term tight situation. On the demand side, traders are cautious about building inventories, and deep - processing enterprises have low inventories and a need for replenishment. Feed enterprises maintain a safe inventory, and their long - term enthusiasm for building inventories is not high. In summary, the short - term supply - demand tight pattern remains unchanged, and the strong spot price in the Northeast region drives the futures price to a new high. Pay attention to the rhythm of corn supply and inventory changes, as a recovery may limit the price increase space [6]. Sugar Industry - The ICE raw sugar futures closed lower. Although the sugar price rebounded to some extent after reaching a five - year low last month, the expectation of a global sugar surplus this year limits the price increase. After the Indian government allowed sugar mills to export 1.5 million tons of sugar in the 2025 - 26 season, more than 100,000 tons of spot contracts have been signed and the transportation has started. Due to abundant rainfall this year, the sugarcane crushing work in India is in full swing. As of November 30, 2025, the national sugarcane crushing volume and sugar production are expected to increase significantly compared with last year. Overall, the raw sugar remains in a weak trend. The listing of new sugar in Guangxi has led to a decline in the price of Yunnan sugar, and the impact of low - price sugar has also spread to the processed sugar and beet sugar fields. It is expected that the Zhengzhou sugar will maintain a weak and volatile trend [10]. Cotton Industry - The ICE cotton futures fell to the lowest level in more than a week due to the dismal export sales report and the weak market sentiment. The USDA export sales report shows that the net increase in US cotton export sales in the current market year decreased by 39% compared with the previous week and 51% compared with the average of the previous four weeks. Investors are paying attention to the upcoming USDA weekly export sales report and the global agricultural supply - demand forecast report. In the domestic market, the cotton picking in Xinjiang is completely finished, and the acquisition in the northern part is basically over, while the acquisition volume in the southern part is shrinking. As the cottonseed resources decrease, the acquisition price continues to fall. The upward movement of Zhengzhou cotton still faces hedging pressure, but the pressure is not concentrated. The demand - side textile enterprises' procurement of cotton spot is sluggish, but the pre - sales are being delivered one after another, which eases the short - term supply pressure. The spot sales basis is firm, and there is strong support for the Zhengzhou cotton price. In summary, the cotton price will fluctuate within a range in the short term [12]. Egg Industry - Based on the previous chick replenishment and the base of last month's inventory, the number of laying hens in the laying period is likely to decline to some extent in December. Although the current inventory is still at a relatively high level compared with the same period in previous years. The market trading is dull, the downstream procurement has not started, the terminal consumption remains weak, and traders are not enthusiastic about purchasing, mostly purchasing on demand. The average inventory in the production and circulation links is about 1.06 days and 1.14 days respectively, and each link maintains a rigid - demand inventory. The egg supply is basically normal, the downstream digestion speed is slow, most traders have low confidence in the future market, the inventory in each link increases slightly, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is stable. It is expected that the egg futures price will maintain a weak pattern at the bottom [15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Pig Industry - Futures Indicators: The main contract basis increased by 64.58% to - 82; the price of Live Pig 2605 decreased by 0.46% to 11,870 yuan/ton; the price of Live Pig 2601 decreased by 0.91% to 11,385 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 11.49% to - 485; the main contract position decreased by 1.34% to 90,529; the number of warehouse receipts increased from 0 to 85 [2]. - Spot Prices: The spot prices in different regions showed different trends. For example, the price in Henan increased by 50 yuan/ton to 11,300 yuan/ton, while the price in Shandong decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 11,250 yuan/ton [2]. - Spot Indicators: The daily slaughter volume of sample points increased by 0.42% to 210,923; the weekly white - strip price decreased by 0.38% to 18.21 yuan/kg; the weekly piglet price decreased by 2.86% to 17.00 yuan/kg; the weekly sow price remained unchanged at 32.47 yuan/kg; the weekly average slaughter weight increased by 0.32% to 129.22 kg; the weekly self - breeding profit decreased by 8.90% to - 148 yuan/head; the weekly purchased - pig breeding profit decreased by 6.05% to - 249 yuan/head; the monthly number of fertile sows decreased by 1.12% to 3,990 million heads [2]. Meal Industry - Soybean Meal: The price of Jiangsu soybean meal remained unchanged at 3,060 yuan/ton; the price of M2605 decreased by 0.49% to 2,833 yuan/ton; the basis of M2605 increased by 6.57% to 227; the basis quotation of Jiangsu spot is m2601 - 20; the Brazilian 2 - month shipping schedule's import crushing profit decreased by 7.5% to 49; the number of warehouse receipts increased by 54.4% to 23,830 [4]. - Rapeseed Meal: The price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal decreased by 0.42% to 2,390 yuan/ton; the price of RM2605 decreased by 0.58% to 2,395 yuan/ton; the basis of RM2605 increased by 44.44% to - 5; the Canadian 1 - month shipping schedule's import crushing profit increased by 8.81% to 729; the number of warehouse receipts remained at 0 [4]. - Soybeans: The price of Harbin soybeans remained unchanged at 3,940 yuan/ton; the price of the main soybean contract decreased by 0.82% to 4,105 yuan/ton; the basis of the main soybean contract increased by 17.09% to - 199; the price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 3,950 yuan/ton; the price of the main soybean No. 2 contract decreased by 0.32% to 3,770 yuan/ton; the basis of the main soybean No. 2 contract increased by 6.67% to 192; the number of warehouse receipts increased by 0.77% to 15,766 [4]. - Spreads: The 05 - 09 spread of soybean meal remained unchanged at - 112; the 05 - 09 spread of rapeseed meal decreased by 2.99% to - 2; the spot oil - meal ratio increased by 7.10% to 2.91; the oil - meal ratio of the main contract increased by 0.58% to 2.80; the spot soybean - rapeseed meal spread increased by 1.52% to 670; the 2605 soybean - rapeseed meal spread remained unchanged at 438 [4]. Oil Industry - Soybean Oil: The price of Jiangsu first - grade soybean oil decreased by 0.58% to 8,570 yuan/ton; the price of Y2601 decreased by 0.39% to 8,254 yuan/ton; the basis of Y2601 decreased by 5.39% to 316; the basis quotation of Jiangsu in January is 01 + 260; the number of warehouse receipts increased by 111.96% to 18,269 [5]. - Palm Oil: The price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong decreased by 0.92% to 8,640 yuan/ton; the price of P2601 decreased by 0.73% to 8,666 yuan/ton; the basis of P2601 decreased by 160.00% to - 26; the basis quotation of Guangdong in January is 01 + 50; the import cost of Guangzhou Port in January decreased by 1.66% to 9,042.2 yuan/ton; the import profit of Guangzhou Port in January increased by 19.12% to - 376 yuan/ton; the number of warehouse receipts increased by 28.41% to 452 [5]. - Rapeseed Oil: The price of Jiangsu third - grade rapeseed oil decreased by 0.80% to 9,970 yuan/ton; the price of Ol601 decreased by 0.96% to 9,618 yuan/ton; the basis of Ol601 increased by 3.83% to 352; the basis quotation of Jiangsu in January is 01 + 270; the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 20 to 3,792 [5]. - Spreads: The 01 - 05 spread of soybean oil decreased by 4.17% to 184; the 01 - 05 spread of palm oil increased by 11.76% to - 30; the 01 - 05 spread of rapeseed oil decreased by 20.96% to 181; the spot soybean - palm oil spread increased by 30.00% to - 70; the 2601 soybean - palm oil spread increased by 6.57% to - 626; the spot rapeseed - soybean oil spread decreased by 2.10% to 1,400; the 2601 rapeseed - soybean oil spread decreased by 4.28% to 1,364 [5]. Corn Industry - Corn: The price of Corn 2601 increased by 1.24% to 2,287 yuan/ton; the Pingcang price at Jinzhou Port increased by 0.43% to 2,310 yuan/ton; the basis decreased by 43.90% to 23; the 1 - 5 spread increased by 76.67% to - 7; the bulk grain price at Shekou increased by 0.41% to 2,460 yuan/ton; the north - south trade profit remained unchanged at 59; the CIF price decreased by 0.11% to 2,096 yuan/ton; the import profit increased by 3.51% to 364; the number of remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing enterprises in the morning decreased by 11.52% to 1,083; the position increased by 4.76% to 2,346,433; the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 1.51% to 58,664 [6]. - Corn Starch: The price of Corn Starch 2601 increased by 1.09% to 2,590 yuan/ton; the spot price in Changchun remained unchanged at 2,590 yuan/ton; the spot price in Weifang remained unchanged at 2,800 yuan/ton; the basis decreased by 100.00% to 0; the 1 - 5 spread increased by 39.29% to - 34; the 01 spread between starch and corn on the disk remained unchanged at 303; the profit of Shandong starch remained unchanged at 1; the position increased by 0.73% to 333,476; the number of warehouse receipts was not available [6]. Sugar Industry - Futures Market: The price of Sugar 2601 decreased by 0.71% to 5,328 yuan/ton; the price of Sugar 2605 decreased by 0.64% to 5,263 yuan/ton; the price of the ICE raw sugar main contract decreased by 0.07% to 14.91 cents/pound; the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 5.80% to - 4; the position of the main contract decreased by 0.28% to 329,240; the number of warehouse receipts remained at 0; the number of effective forecasts remained at 183 [10]. - Spot Market: The price in Nanning decreased by 0.55% to 5,390 yuan/ton; the price in Kunming decreased by 0.56% to 5,370 yuan/ton; the basis in Nanning increased by 3.25% to 127; the basis in Kunming increased by 3.88% to 107; the price of imported Brazilian sugar within the quota decreased by 0.36% to 4,106 yuan/ton; the price of imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota decreased by 0.38% to 5,203 yuan/ton; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar within the quota and Nanning increased by 1.15% to - 1,284; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota and Nanning increased by 5.08% to - 187 [10]. - Industry Situation: The cumulative national sugar production increased by 12.03% to 1,116.21 million tons; the cumulative national sugar sales increased by 9.17% to 1,048.00 million tons; the cumulative sugar production in Guangxi increased by 4.59% to 646.50 million tons; the monthly sugar sales in Guang