LPG早报-20251205

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The PG futures price declined. The basis was -43 (-57), and the spread between January and February contracts was 109 (-19). Domestic civil LPG prices decreased, the spread between propane and civil LPG narrowed, and the number of warehouse receipts was 4561 (-54). [1] - The prices of overseas paper goods decreased, the monthly spread strengthened, the change in the oil - gas price ratio between North Asia and North America was small. The domestic - overseas PG - CP spread was 126 (-2); PG - FEI was 114 (+3). The discounts for East China arrival, North America, and AFEI departure remained flat, the Middle East supply was tight with a discount of 35 US dollars (+13). Freight rates decreased slightly. [1] - The FEI - MOPJ spread narrowed to -55 (+11). The profit of propylene production from PDH in Shandong slightly recovered, the alkylation unit slightly improved but was still poor, the MTBE production profit fluctuated, and the export profit was still good. [1] - The arrival volume increased, the external release decreased, factory inventories slightly increased, and port inventories increased. The PDH operating rate was 69.64% (-2.1), and the second - phase PDH of Dongguan Juzhengyuan was expected to restart next week. [1] - Overall, the domestic chemical sector was relatively strong, and civil demand increased, but the arrival volume was expected to be high in December; the Middle East supply was tight, but the market may tend to wait and see as the CP official price was approaching. Attention should also be paid to the weather and oil prices. [1] 3) Summary According to Related Data Daily Changes - On Thursday, for civil LPG, the price in East China was 4411 (+0), in Shandong was 4480 (+0), and in South China was 4530 (+0). The price of ether - after carbon four was 4460 (-20). The lowest delivery location was East China, with a basis of 101 (-21), and the spread between January and February contracts was 79 (-17). [1] - As of 15:00, FEI was 517 (+10) and CP was 502 (+3) US dollars per ton. [1] Weekly View - The PG futures price declined, the domestic civil LPG price decreased, the difference between propane and civil LPG narrowed, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased. [1] - Overseas paper goods prices declined, the monthly spread strengthened, the change in the oil - gas price ratio between North Asia and North America was small, and the domestic - overseas spreads changed. The discounts and freight rates had corresponding changes. [1] - The profit of some chemical production units changed, the arrival volume increased, the external release decreased, inventories increased, and the PDH operating rate decreased. [1] - The domestic chemical sector was relatively strong, civil demand increased, but the arrival volume was expected to be high in December, and the market may wait and see as the CP official price was approaching. Attention should be paid to the weather and oil prices. [1]