广发期货《农产品》日报-20251205

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Pig Industry - Pig prices are at a low level and continue to bottom out. The market supply remains loose, and downstream slaughterhouses are smoothly purchasing. There is an expected increase in December's pig出栏, and the supply pressure from large - scale farms is increasing. The downside space is limited, and the fat - lean price difference is slightly adjusted. Second - round fattening is cautious, and small and medium - sized farmers are not under selling pressure. The futures market is slightly higher than the spot market. The supply - side pressure may be less than expected, but demand is weak. The strategy of inter - month arbitrage can continue to be held, and the single - side price is expected to continue to bottom out [2]. Meal Industry - The domestic soybean meal market remains in a loose pattern, and it is difficult to see an upward trend in the single - side market. The supply in January and February is basically guaranteed, and the uncertainty lies in whether US soybean purchases can meet the domestic soybean arrivals in March. The market is expected to remain volatile, and short - term trading is dull [4]. Oil Industry - For palm oil, the potential negative impact of inventory growth to 2.7 million tons and the weakening of US soybean oil futures may cause short - term Malaysian palm oil to fluctuate around 4,100 ringgit. The Dalian palm oil futures market is in a weak shock, facing resistance at 8,800 yuan and may briefly fall below. It is necessary to pay attention to whether it can stop falling in the 8,350 - 8,500 yuan range and then strengthen. For soybean oil, the US renewable fuel industry's demand for soybean oil remains resilient, but international crude oil decline may drag down CBOT soybean oil. The domestic soybean supply in the fourth quarter is sufficient, and the supply pattern of soybean oil remains unchanged. Some traders' strong selling intentions may drag down the basis price, but the basis price has limited short - term fluctuations due to cost support [5]. Corn Industry - The short - term supply - demand of corn remains tight. In the northeast region, the arrival volume is shrinking, and the price is rising due to restocking and policy support. In the north - central region, the price fluctuates slightly. Traders are cautious about building inventories, while deep - processing enterprises need to replenish stocks. The short - term tight supply - demand pattern and strong northeast spot prices drive the futures price to a new high. Attention should be paid to the corn supply rhythm and inventory changes, which may limit price increases [6]. Sugar Industry - The ICE raw sugar futures are weak. The global sugar market is expected to have a surplus this year, which limits price increases. In India, the sugarcane crushing and production are expected to increase significantly this year. With the listing of new sugar in Guangxi, the price of Yunnan sugar has fallen, and the low - price sugar also affects the processed sugar and beet sugar markets. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to remain in a weak shock [10]. Cotton Industry - The ICE cotton futures have fallen to the lowest level in more than a week due to a weak export sales report and overall market weakness. Investors are waiting for the USDA's next export sales report and the global agricultural supply - demand forecast. In China, the cotton picking in Xinjiang is mostly completed, and the purchase price is falling. Zhengzhou cotton faces hedging pressure, but the pressure is not concentrated. The demand - side purchasing is weak, but pre - sales relieve the short - term supply pressure, and the basis price of spot sales is firm. Short - term cotton prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [12]. Egg Industry - Based on previous chick replenishment and inventory data, the laying - hen inventory in December is likely to decline, although it remains relatively high compared to the same period in previous years. The market trading is light, downstream stocking has not started, and terminal consumption is weak. Traders purchase on demand, and the inventory at each link has slightly increased. Egg futures prices are expected to remain weak at the bottom [15]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Pig Industry - Futures Indicators: The main contract basis has increased by 64.58%, the price of "Pig 2605" has decreased by 0.46%, the price of "Pig 2601" has decreased by 0.91%, the 1 - 5 spread has decreased by 11.49%, the main contract position has decreased by 1.34%, and the number of warehouse receipts has increased to 85 [2]. - Spot Prices: The spot prices in different regions show various changes, such as a 50 - yuan increase in Henan, a 50 - yuan decrease in Shandong, etc. [2]. - Spot Indicators: The daily sample slaughter volume has increased by 0.42%, the weekly white - strip price has decreased by 0.38%, the weekly piglet price has decreased by 2.86%, the weekly sow price remains unchanged, the weekly average slaughter weight has increased by 0.32%, the weekly self - breeding profit has decreased by 8.90%, the weekly purchased - pig breeding profit has decreased by 6.05%, and the monthly reproductive sow inventory has decreased by 1.12% [2]. Meal Industry - Soybean Meal: The spot price in Jiangsu remains unchanged, the futures price of "M2605" has decreased by 0.49%, the basis has increased by 6.57%, the Brazilian 2 - month shipping schedule's import crushing profit has decreased by 7.5%, and the number of warehouse receipts has increased by 54.4% [4]. - Rapeseed Meal: The spot price in Jiangsu has decreased by 0.42%, the futures price of "RM2605" has decreased by 0.58%, the basis has increased by 44.44%, the Canadian 1 - month shipping schedule's import crushing profit has increased by 8.81%, and the number of warehouse receipts remains unchanged [4]. - Soybeans: The spot price of Harbin soybeans remains unchanged, the futures price of the main soybean contract has decreased by 0.82%, the basis has increased by 17.09%, the spot price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu remains unchanged, the futures price of the main soybean - two contract has decreased by 0.32%, the basis has increased by 6.67%, and the number of warehouse receipts has increased by 0.77% [4]. - Spreads: The 05 - 09 spread of soybean meal remains unchanged, the 05 - 09 spread of rapeseed meal has decreased by 2.99%, the spot oil - meal ratio has increased by 7.10%, the main - contract oil - meal ratio has decreased by 0.58%, the spot soybean - rapeseed meal price difference has increased by 1.52%, and the 2605 soybean - rapeseed meal price difference remains unchanged [4]. Oil Industry - Soybean Oil: The spot price in Jiangsu has decreased by 0.58%, the futures price of "Y2601" has decreased by 0.39%, the basis has decreased by 5.39%, and the number of warehouse receipts has increased by 111.96% [5]. - Palm Oil: The spot price in Guangdong has decreased by 0.92%, the futures price of "P2601" has decreased by 0.73%, the basis has decreased by 160.00%, the import cost has decreased by 1.66%, the import profit has increased by 19.12%, and the number of warehouse receipts has increased by 28.41% [5]. - Rapeseed Oil: The spot price in Jiangsu has decreased by 0.80%, the futures price of "Ol601" has decreased by 0.96%, the basis has increased by 3.83%, and the number of warehouse receipts has decreased by 20 [5]. - Spreads: The 01 - 05 spread of soybean oil has decreased by 4.17%, the 01 - 05 spread of palm oil has increased by 11.76%, the 01 - 05 spread of rapeseed oil has decreased by 20.96%, the spot soybean - palm oil price difference has increased by 30.00%, the 2601 soybean - palm oil price difference has increased by 6.57%, the spot rapeseed - soybean oil price difference has decreased by 2.10%, and the 2601 rapeseed - soybean oil price difference has decreased by 4.28% [5]. Corn Industry - Corn: The futures price of "Corn 2601" has increased by 1.24%, the Jinzhou Port flat - hatch price has increased by 0.43%, the basis has decreased by 43.90%, the 1 - 5 spread has increased by 76.67%, the Shekou bulk - grain price has increased by 0.41%, the north - south trade profit remains unchanged, the CIF price has decreased by 0.11%, the import profit has increased by 3.51%, the number of remaining vehicles in Shandong deep - processing enterprises in the morning has decreased by 11.52%, the position has increased by 4.76%, and the number of warehouse receipts has decreased by 1.51% [6]. - Corn Starch: The futures price of "Corn Starch 2601" has increased by 1.09%, the Changchun spot price remains unchanged, the Weifang spot price remains unchanged, the basis has decreased by 100.00%, the 1 - 5 spread has increased by 39.29%, the 01 - contract starch - corn price difference remains unchanged, the Shandong starch profit remains unchanged, the position has increased by 0.73%, and the number of warehouse receipts is not available [6]. Sugar Industry - Futures Market: The futures price of "Sugar 2601" has decreased by 0.71%, the futures price of "Sugar 2605" has decreased by 0.64%, the ICE raw sugar main - contract price has decreased by 0.07%, the 1 - 5 spread has decreased by 5.80%, the main - contract position has decreased by 0.28%, the number of warehouse receipts remains 0, and the effective forecast remains unchanged [10]. - Spot Market: The spot prices in Nanning and Kunming have decreased, the Nanning basis has increased by 3.25%, the Kunming basis has increased by 3.88%, the imported Brazilian sugar (within quota) price has decreased by 0.36%, the imported Brazilian sugar (outside quota) price has decreased by 0.38%, the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar (within quota) and Nanning has increased by 1.15%, and the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar (outside quota) and Nanning has increased by 5.08% [10]. - Industry Situation: The cumulative national sugar production has increased by 12.03%, the cumulative national sugar sales have increased by 9.17%, the cumulative sugar production in Guangxi has increased by 4.59%, the monthly sugar sales in Guangxi have decreased by 41.20%, the cumulative national sugar sales rate has decreased by 2.60%, the cumulative sugar sales rate in Guangxi has increased by 4.80%, the US industrial sugar inventory has decreased by 41.20%, the industrial sugar inventory in Guangxi has increased by 62.90%, the industrial sugar inventory in Sichuan has increased by 26.60%, and the sugar import has increased by 37.50% [10]. Cotton Industry - Futures Market: The futures price of "Cotton 2605" has increased by 0.04%, the futures price of "Cotton 2601" has increased by 0.07%, the ICE US cotton main - contract price has decreased by 0.64%, the 5 - 1 spread has decreased by 16.67%, the main - contract position has decreased by 1.73%, the number of warehouse receipts has increased by 1.93%, and the effective forecast has increased by 19.39% [12]. - Spot Market: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton has decreased by 0.05%, the CC Index of 3128B cotton has decreased by 0.05%, the FC Index of M - grade 1% cotton has decreased by 0.12%, the price difference between 3128B cotton and the 01 contract has decreased by 1.17%, the price difference between 3128B cotton and the 05 contract has decreased by 1.66%, and the price difference between the CC Index of 3128B cotton and the FC Index of M - grade 1% cotton has increased by 0.43% [12]. - Industry Situation: The commercial inventory has increased by 24.2%, the industrial inventory has increased by 4.9%, the import volume has decreased by 10.0%, the bonded - area inventory has increased by 5.5%, the year - on - year inventory of the textile industry has decreased by 66.7%, the yarn inventory days have increased by 0.9%, the grey - cloth inventory days have decreased by 2.7%, the cotton outbound transportation volume from Xinjiang has increased by 22.6%, the spinning enterprise's C32s immediate processing profit has increased by 0.4%, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, and textiles have increased by 19.5%, the year - on - year monthly retail sales of clothing, footwear, and textiles have increased by 34.0%, the export value of textile yarns, fabrics, and products has decreased by 5.9%, the year - on - year monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics, and products has decreased by 242.1%, the export value of clothing and accessories has decreased by 11.6%, and the year - on - year export value of clothing and accessories has decreased by 100.2% [12]. Egg Industry - Futures and Spot Indicators: The price of the "Egg 01" contract remains unchanged, the price of the "Egg 02" contract has increased by 0.13%, the egg - producing area price has decreased by 0.29%, the basis has decreased by 10.70%, the 1 - 2 spread has decreased by 3.33%, the egg - chick price remains unchanged, the culled - hen price has decreased by 2.06%, the egg - feed ratio has decreased by 0.43%, and the breeding profit has decreased by 3.84% [15].