芳烃橡胶早报-20251205

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints - For PTA, with some devices restarting, polyester load slightly increasing, and inventory decreasing, the basis strengthens, but the spot processing fee weakens. PX domestic operation declines, and overseas devices reduce load. In the future, TA will maintain a high - inspection state, downstream pressure is not obvious, and with India's revocation of BIS certification, the inventory accumulation slope is low, and there are opportunities for positive spreads and expanding processing fees [1]. - For MEG, with domestic coal - chemical devices restarting, overseas devices under maintenance, and port inventory stable, the basis weakens and coal - making efficiency improves slightly. In the future, inventory accumulation may slow down, and the current valuation compression space is limited. There are short - term put - selling opportunities, but the long - term pattern is expected to be weak [1]. - For polyester short - fiber, the device operation is stable, production and sales improve slightly, and inventory decreases. Demand is basically stable, and exports maintain high growth. In the short term, inventory pressure is limited, but the pattern may weaken in the long term. Attention should be paid to the warehouse receipt situation [1]. - For natural rubber, the national explicit inventory is stable, and the Thai cup - rubber price is stable. The strategy is to wait and see [1]. 3. Summary by Product PTA - Market Data: From November 28 to December 4, 2025, the price of PTA fluctuated slightly. The average daily basis of spot transactions was 2601(-34). The Honggang 250 - million - ton device restarted [1]. - Market Situation: Some PTA devices restarted, the start - up rate increased month - on - month, polyester load increased slightly, inventory decreased, the basis continued to strengthen, and the spot processing fee decreased month - on - month. PX domestic operation declined, overseas devices reduced load, PXN strengthened month - on - month, disproportionation efficiency was weak, and isomerization efficiency remained stable. The aromatics price difference between the US and Asia shrank [1]. - Outlook: TA will maintain a high - inspection state, downstream especially filament and staple fiber have no obvious pressure. With India's revocation of BIS certification, the inventory accumulation slope is low, and far - month production capacity is limited. PX has a good pattern. Pay attention to opportunities for positive spreads and expanding processing fees [1]. MEG - Market Data: From November 28 to December 4, 2025, the price of MEG decreased. The basis was around 01(-3). The Shenghong 90 - million - ton device restarted [1]. - Market Situation: There was a concentrated restart of domestic coal - chemical devices, the start - up rate increased month - on - month. Some overseas devices were under maintenance, port inventory was stable at the beginning of the week, and the arrival forecast was low. The basis weakened, and coal - making efficiency improved slightly [1]. - Outlook: With supply reduction and high polyester start - up, the inventory accumulation rate is expected to slow down. Coal - making efficiency is at a low level, and the comparison with other olefins has weakened. The current valuation compression space is limited. Pay attention to short - term put - selling opportunities. In the long term, with new device launches and warehouse receipt pressure, the overall pattern is expected to be weak [1]. Polyester Short - Fiber - Market Data: The spot price was around 6339, and the market basis was around 01 - 80. The start - up rate was maintained at 97.5%, production and sales improved slightly, and inventory decreased month - on - month [1]. - Market Situation: The device operation was stable in the near - term. On the demand side, the start - up rate of polyester yarn remained stable, raw material inventory decreased, and finished - product inventory increased, with stable efficiency [1]. - Outlook: Short - fiber demand remains basically the same as before. Polyester yarn efficiency and start - up rate have not improved significantly, but short - fiber exports maintain high growth. In the short term, inventory pressure is limited. In the far - month, as the downstream enters the off - season and new supply devices are approaching launch, the pattern may weaken. The current processing fee is relatively neutral. Pay attention to the warehouse receipt situation [1]. Natural Rubber - Market Data: From November 28 to December 4, 2025, the prices of various types of natural rubber decreased to varying degrees. The national explicit inventory was stable, and the Thai cup - rubber price was stable [1]. - Market Situation: The Thai cup - rubber price was stable due to rainfall [1]. - Strategy: Wait and see [1]