建信期货棉花日报-20251205

Industry - The report focuses on the cotton industry [1] Report Date - The report was released on December 5, 2025 [2] Researchers - Yu Lanlan, contact: 021 - 60635732, email: yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F0301101 [3] - Lin Zhenlei, contact: 021 - 60635740, email: linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F3055047 [3] - Wang Haifeng, contact: 021 - 60635727, email: wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F0230741 [3] - Hong Chenliang, contact: 021 - 60635572, email: hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F3076808 [3] - Liu Youran, contact: 021 - 60635570, email: liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F03094925 [3] Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Zhengzhou cotton oscillated and adjusted. The latest 328 - grade cotton price index was 15,005 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [7] - The fixed - price quotes for 2025/26 Northern Xinjiang machine - picked cotton (3130/29 - 30B, impurity within 3.5) were mostly around 14,800 - 14,950 yuan on a legal weight basis, with actual local prices sometimes lower. The sales basis for the same - quality spot was mostly in the range of CF01 + 1100 - 1250, and the basis in the 1000 - 1100 range increased slightly this week [7] - The mainstream basis for Northern Xinjiang machine - picked 41 - grade (excluding light - spotted, double 29, impurity within 3.5) was CF01 + 900 and above, and the number of offers for the same - price 31 - grade increased [7] - The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market was weak, with mainly rigid - demand transactions. The trading of medium - and low - count yarns slowed down, and inventories accumulated to some extent, while high - count yarns had good sales with longer order schedules. Overall, the operating rate decreased [7] - The trading in the all - cotton grey fabric and garment grey fabric market was slow, with sufficient inventory of regular varieties and weak prices. In Nantong, the production of wide - width home textile fabrics continued, and the sales were okay, but the profit was lower than expected. Some factories sold at discounted prices, and the current spot inventory was about one month [7] Overseas and Domestic Market Analysis - Overseas, the inspection volume of US cotton was slower year - on - year, and the output of Brazilian cotton was high. The supply - demand contradiction in the international market was not prominent. Future attention should be paid to interest - rate cuts and the adjustment of the December USDA supply - demand report [8] - In the domestic market, the basis for cotton spot sales was stable to slightly weak this week. After some new cotton in Southern Xinjiang was hedged, there was new low - basis spot in the market, and the quotes for the CF05 contract increased gradually. The downstream demand in the industry remained weak, and the finished - product inventory of textile enterprises continued to increase slightly. The inventory pressure of downstream finished products was not large for now. With limited changes in the fundamentals, short - term long - position holders took profits and reduced positions for adjustment, but the upward trend of the pressure level remained unchanged [8] Industry News - As of December 3, 2025, 1061 cotton processing enterprises across the country processed cotton and conducted notarized inspections in accordance with the cotton quality inspection system reform plan. The cumulative inspection volume was 20,147,916 bales, equivalent to 4.5483 million tons, an increase of 86,400 tons from the previous day. Among them, the inspection volume in Xinjiang was 19,943,562 bales, equivalent to 4.5026 million tons, an increase of 85,000 tons, and the inspection volume in the inland areas was 107,413 bales, equivalent to 23,800 tons [9] Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts including the China Cotton Price Index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, CF1 - 5 spread, CF5 - 9 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, total warehouse receipts, US dollar - RMB exchange rate, and US dollar - Indian rupee exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [18][19][20]