建信期货多晶硅日报-20251205

Group 1: Report Information - Report date: December 05, 2025 [2] - Research team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [3] - Researchers: Li Jie, Ren Junchi, Peng Haozhou, Peng Jinglin, Liu Youran, Feng Zeren [1][3] Group 2: Market Performance - Futures price of polysilicon main contract: The PS2601 contract closed at 56,915 yuan/ton, up 0.05%. The trading volume was 175,576 lots, and the open - interest was 116,653 lots, with a net decrease of 11,085 lots [4] - Spot price of polysilicon: The transaction price of n - type re -投料 ranged from 49,000 to 55,000 yuan/ton, with an average of 53,200 yuan/ton, flat month - on - month. The transaction price of n - type granular silicon ranged from 50,000 to 51,000 yuan/ton, with an average of 50,500 yuan/ton, flat month - on - month [4] Group 3: Market Outlook - Fundamental situation: The fundamentals have not improved. The monthly output remains the same as in November. Profits are concentrated in the silicon material segment, but downstream segments are continuously lowering prices due to terminal pressure. Downstream enterprises are reducing production and controlling output. The spot price remains stable, meeting the policy requirements. The adjustment of the supply - demand relationship is difficult to be improved by the industry's own drive [4] - Futures price trend: The exchange's position limit sends a stable signal. The net long position of the top 20 decreased by 10,393 lots, and the net short position decreased by 5,181 lots. The upward resistance of the futures price is strong. After rising and then falling, it brings adjustment pressure again. The short - term support is around 55,800 [4] Group 4: Market News - On December 04, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 1,560 lots, an increase of 10 lots from the previous trading day [5] - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association stated that it and industry enterprises are working together, and the relevant work is progressing steadily. The rumors on the Internet are all false information. The association will fight against malicious acts of short - selling the photovoltaic industry [5] - The Silicon Industry Branch of the association estimates that the output in November was about 114,900 tons, a 14% decrease from 137,000 tons in October. The output in December is expected to rebound to about 120,000 tons [5]