建信期货工业硅日报-20251205

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The industrial silicon futures price fluctuated within a narrow range, and the spot price continued to weaken. The supply has entered a stable stage, but the demand has also weakened simultaneously, and the situation of supply - demand imbalance has not been reversed. The fundamentals lack obvious drivers, and the market will mainly operate in a volatile manner [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance and Outlook - Futures Market: The closing price of Si2601 was 8,910 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.50%. The trading volume was 152,172 lots, and the open interest was 193,019 lots, a net decrease of 907 lots [4]. - Spot Market: The spot price continued to loosen. The price of Sichuan 553 was 9,350 yuan/ton, and the price of Yunnan 553 (oxygen - passed) was 9,400 yuan/ton. The price of Sichuan 421 was 9,950 yuan/ton, the price of Xinjiang 421 and Inner Mongolia 421 was 9,600 yuan/ton [4]. - Outlook: The supply has entered a stable stage, but the demand has also weakened. The organic silicon enterprises will cut production to support prices starting from December, and the polysilicon is in the season of production reduction. The supply - demand imbalance persists. The fundamentals lack obvious drivers, and the market will mainly operate in a volatile manner with a strong support range of 8,765 - 8,840 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2 Market News - On December 3rd, the number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts on the GZFE was 7,228 lots, a net increase of 336 lots compared to the previous trading day [5]. - In October 2025, the export volume of industrial silicon was 45,073.36 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 35.82% and a year - on - year decrease of 30.78% [5]. - In October 2025, the export volume of China's primary - form polysiloxanes was 40,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.49% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.65%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative export volume of primary - form polysiloxanes was 460,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.51% [5].