大越期货沪铜早报-20251205

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The supply side of copper has disturbances with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap - copper policy being relaxed. The November China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from last month, still in the contraction range but showing marginal improvement. With inventory rising and geopolitical disturbances remaining, the Grasberg Block Cave mine incident in Indonesia is fermenting, and copper prices have reached a new historical high, mainly operating strongly [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - Fundamentals: Supply - side disturbances, smelting enterprise production cuts, relaxed scrap - copper policy. November China Manufacturing PMI is 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from last month, in contraction range but with marginal improvement; neutral [2]. - Basis: Spot price is 91130, basis is 150, at a premium to futures; neutral [2]. - Inventory: On December 4, copper inventory increased by 675 to 162825 tons, and SHFE copper inventory decreased by 12673 tons from last week to 97930 tons; neutral [2]. - Market Chart: The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward; bullish [2]. - Main Position: The main net position is short, and short positions are increasing; bearish [2]. - Expectation: Inventory is rising, geopolitical disturbances remain, the Grasberg Block Cave mine incident in Indonesia is fermenting, copper prices reach a new high, and the market is mainly operating strongly [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - Likely Positive Factors: Global policy easing [3]. - Likely Negative Factors: Trade - war escalation [3]. Other Information - Supply - Demand Balance: There will be a slight surplus in 2024 and a tight balance in 2025 [19]. - China Annual Supply - Demand Balance Table: From 2018 - 2024, data on production, imports, exports, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance are provided, showing different supply - demand situations each year [21]. - Bonded Area Inventory: Bonded area inventory has rebounded from a low level [13]. - Processing Fees: Processing fees have declined [15].