大越期货焦煤焦炭早报-20251205

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall supply of coking coal remains tight, but there is a certain shipment pressure on coal mines, and the market sentiment continues to cool down. It is expected that the coking coal price may run weakly in the short term [2]. - After the first - round price cut of coke, the supply has increased significantly. However, affected by factors such as the wait - and - see attitude of traders and the weakening of steel mills' purchasing enthusiasm, the coke market is expected to run weakly in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints 3.1.1 Coking Coal - Fundamental: The resumption of production of coal mines is slow, supply is limited, but there are shipment problems, and the prices of many coal enterprises have been lowered [2]. - Basis: Spot price is 1190, basis is 6, and the spot is at a premium to the futures [2]. - Inventory: The total sample inventory is 1957 tons, 21 tons less than last week [2]. - Disk: The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is below the 20 - day line [2]. - Main position: The main position of coking coal is net short, and short positions are increasing [2]. - Expectation: Coking enterprises and steel mills have poor profits, and the coking coal price has a downward space [2]. 3.1.2 Coke - Fundamental: After the first - round price cut, coke supply has increased, but some coking enterprises have inventory pressure [5]. - Basis: Spot price is 1610, basis is - 41.5, and the spot is at a discount to the futures [5]. - Inventory: The total sample inventory is 858 tons, 1 ton less than last week [5]. - Disk: The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is below the 20 - day line [5]. - Main position: The main position of coke is net short, and short positions are increasing [5]. - Expectation: Coke production is stable with a slight increase, but steel mills' demand is decreasing, and the cost support is weakening [5]. 3.2 Factors Affecting Prices 3.2.1 Coking Coal - Bullish factors: Rising hot metal production, difficult supply increase [4]. - Bearish factors: Slowdown in raw coal procurement by coking and steel enterprises, weak steel prices [4]. 3.2.2 Coke - Bullish factors: Rising hot metal production, synchronous increase in blast furnace operating rate [7]. - Bearish factors: Squeezed profit margins of steel mills, partial overdraft of replenishment demand [7]. 3.3 Inventory Data - Port inventory: Coking coal port inventory is 295 tons, 0.1 tons less than last week; coke port inventory is 195.1 tons, 1 ton more than last week [17]. - Independent coking enterprise inventory: Coking coal inventory is 819.3 tons, 69.2 tons less than last week; coke inventory is 42.5 tons, 3.5 tons more than last week [21]. - Steel mill inventory: Coking coal inventory is 803.8 tons, 4.3 tons more than last week; coke inventory is 626.7 tons, 13.3 tons less than last week [26]. 3.4 Other Data - Coke oven capacity utilization rate: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises nationwide is 74.48% [39]. - Average profit per ton of coke: The average profit per ton of coke of 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 25 yuan [43].