大越期货聚烯烃早报-20251205

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - For LLDPE, the overall fundamentals are bearish, but with cost support. The market is expected to fluctuate today due to factors such as supply - demand imbalance and propane price increase [4][5]. - For PP, the overall fundamentals are bearish, also with cost support. The market is predicted to be volatile today considering supply - demand situation and propane price [6][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs LLDPE - Fundamentals: In October, the official PMI was 49, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. OPEC + decided to maintain the November production plan, increasing production by 137,000 barrels per day in December and suspending the increase from January to March 2026. Propane price increase drives up polyolefin prices. Agricultural film demand is declining, and packaging film is mainly for rigid demand. The current LLDPE delivery product spot price is 6,740 (-80), with overall bearish fundamentals [4]. - Basis: The basis of LLDPE 2601 contract is - 36, with a premium - discount ratio of - 0.5%, considered neutral [4]. - Inventory: PE comprehensive inventory is 497,000 tons (-4,000), which is bearish [4]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, indicating a bearish trend [4]. - Main Position: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is decreasing, which is bullish [4]. - Expectation: The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate today, with an oversupply situation, propane price increase driving the market, neutral industrial inventory, and declining downstream demand [4]. - Likely and Unlikely Factors: Bullish factor is cost support; bearish factors are weak downstream demand year - on - year and more new production in the fourth quarter. The main logic is oversupply and domestic macro - policies [5]. PP - Fundamentals: Similar to LLDPE in terms of macro and OPEC + decisions. Propane price increase and low PDH profit drive up polyolefin prices. Plastic weaving seasonal demand is declining, while pipe demand is okay. The current PP delivery product spot price is 6,360 (-20), with overall bearish fundamentals [6]. - Basis: The basis of PP 2601 contract is 1, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.0%, considered neutral [6]. - Inventory: PP comprehensive inventory is 565,000 tons (+19,000), which is bearish [6]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, indicating a bearish trend [6]. - Main Position: The net short position of the PP main contract is decreasing, which is bearish [6]. - Expectation: The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate today, with an oversupply situation, propane price increase driving the market, neutral industrial inventory, and average downstream demand [6]. - Likely and Unlikely Factors: Bullish factor is cost support; bearish factors are weak downstream demand year - on - year and more new production in the fourth quarter. The main logic is oversupply and domestic macro - policies [7]. Spot and Futures Market and Inventory - LLDPE: The spot delivery product price is 6,740 (-80), the 01 contract price is 6,776 (-32), the basis is - 36 (-48). PE comprehensive factory inventory is 497,000 tons (-4,000), and social inventory is 486,000 tons (+15,000) [8]. - PP: The spot delivery product price is 6,360 (-20), the 01 contract price is 6,359 (-23), the basis is 1 (3). PP comprehensive factory inventory is 565,000 tons (+19,000), and social inventory is 325,000 tons (+17,000) [8]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Polyethylene: From 2018 - 2024, the capacity, production, net import, and apparent consumption have shown different growth trends. The import dependence has gradually decreased. In 2025E, the capacity is expected to be 4,319,500 tons, with a growth rate of 20.5% [13]. - Polypropylene: From 2018 - 2024, the capacity, production, net import, and apparent consumption have also changed. The import dependence has generally decreased. In 2025E, the capacity is expected to be 4,906,000 tons, with a growth rate of 11.0% [15].