大越期货纯碱早报-20251205

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and it is expected to mainly fluctuate and move downward in the short term. The supply of soda ash is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the pattern of supply - demand mismatch in the industry has not been effectively improved [2][5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily View - The fundamentals show that the output of soda ash plants is at a high level, the second - phase of Yuangxing is expected to be put into production before the end of the year, and the overall supply is expected to be abundant; the daily melting volume of downstream float glass and photovoltaic glass continues to decline, and the inventory of soda ash plants is at a high level in the same period, which is bearish [2]. - The basis is - 32 yuan, with futures at a premium to spot, which is bearish [2]. - The national inventory of soda ash plants is 153.86 million tons, a decrease of 3.07% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average, which is bearish [2]. - The price is running below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward, which is bearish [2]. - The net position of the main force is short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [2]. 2. Influence Factors Summary - Lithium: Equipment problems lead to production reduction and maintenance of enterprises, and the recovery of soda ash supply is slow [3]. - Negative: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year, and the industry output is at a high level in the same period; the production of photovoltaic glass, a downstream product of heavy soda, has been reduced, and the demand for soda ash has weakened [4]. 3. Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 1162 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.26% from the previous value; the low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe is 1130 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous value; the main basis is - 32 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.57% from the previous value [6]. 4. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1130 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [11]. - The profit of heavy soda ash in North China's ammonia - soda process is - 118.50 yuan/ton, and that in East China's co - production process is - 220 yuan/ton, at a historical low [14]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash is 80.08%, and the weekly output is 69.82 million tons, including 38.31 million tons of heavy soda ash, with the output at a historical high [17][19]. - From 2023 to 2025, a large amount of new production capacity has been added or is planned to be added, with a total planned addition of 1570 million tons and an actual addition of 920 million tons [20]. 5. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly production - sales rate of soda ash is 108.16% [23]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass is 15.72 million tons, and the operating rate is 74.85% [26]. 6. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national inventory of soda ash plants is 153.86 million tons, a decrease of 3.07% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [33]. 7. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2017 to 2024E, the supply - demand situation of soda ash has fluctuated. In 2024E, the effective production capacity is 3930 million tons, the output is 3650 million tons, the apparent supply is 3536 million tons, the total demand is 3379 million tons, and the supply - demand difference is 157 million tons [34].