建信期货生猪日报-20251205

Report Information - Report Title: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: December 05, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The spot market shows both supply and demand increasing, but the enthusiasm of second - fattening is weak and mainly in a wait - and - see mode, so prices are likely to fluctuate [7] - In the futures market, pig supply is expected to increase slightly before the Spring Festival. The 2601 contract still has demand elasticity, but the concentrated second - fattening in October and continuous capacity release may create double supply pressure before the Spring Festival, putting downward pressure on the 01 and 03 contracts. In the medium and long term, the trend is likely to be weakly fluctuating, but as the price decline compared to the same period last year is large, the frequency of bottom - end fluctuations may increase [7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures Market: On the 4th, the main 2603 contract of live pigs opened slightly higher and then fluctuated downwards, closing in the red. The highest was 11,250 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,180 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,190 yuan/ton, a 0.44% decrease from the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 3,206 lots to 374,770 lots [6] - Spot Market: On the 4th, the national average price of三元hogs was 11.20 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.08 yuan/kg from the previous day [6] - Supply Side: In the long term, pig slaughter is expected to maintain a slight growth trend until the first half of next year. In October, second - fattening and weight - holding were concentrated, and the current utilization rate of second - fattening pens is high, reaching last year's level, increasing the supply pressure before the Spring Festival. Currently, farmers are slaughtering according to the normal rhythm [7] - Demand Side: The pen utilization rate is high, and second - fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see mode. There may still be a small amount of rolling replenishment demand in December. The continuous cooling of the weather has led to the start of curing and sausage - making in Sichuan. In addition, fresh sales in many northern and southern regions have improved, terminal consumer demand has continued to rise, and the increase in slaughter orders has significantly supported the slaughter volume. On December 4th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughterhouses was 177,300 heads, an increase of 600 heads from the previous day, 3,000 heads week - on - week, and 19,000 heads month - on - month [7] 2. Industry News - Not provided in the content 3. Data Overview - Actual and Planned Slaughter: In November, the actual slaughter volume of Yongyi sample enterprises was 26.49 million heads, with a completion rate of 99.36%. The planned slaughter volume in December is 27.72 million heads, a monthly increase of 4.64% and a daily average increase of 1.27% [12] - Breeding Profit: As of the week of December 4th, the average profit per self - bred and self - raised pig was - 135.01 yuan/head, a decrease of 23.88 yuan/head from the previous week; the profit from purchasing piglets for breeding was - 273 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 2 yuan/head [12] - Fattening Cost: As of the week of December 4th, the cost of purchasing 110kg pigs and fattening them to 140kg was 11.00 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.12 yuan/kg from the previous week; the cost of purchasing 125kg pigs and fattening them to 150kg was 11.39 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.12 yuan/kg from the previous week [12] - Average Slaughter Weight: As of the week of December 4th, the average slaughter weight of pigs was 129.82kg, an increase of 0.60kg from the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 0.46%. Among them, the average slaughter weight of group farms was 124.71kg, an increase of 0.16kg from the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 0.13%, and the average slaughter weight of individual farmers was 146.08kg, an increase of 0.91kg from the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 0.63% [12]