建信期货集运指数日报-20251205

Report Overview - Report Title: "集运指数日报" [1] - Report Date: December 5, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating was provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The SCFIS index dropped again this week, indicating that the price increase at the end of November and in the first half of December by shipping companies fell short of expectations. Maersk's quotes are aggressive, suppressing the price - raising space of other airlines, and there is a possibility that other airlines may follow Maersk to cut prices for cargo. Given the late Spring Festival this year, the market may engage in incentive games for the pre - Spring Festival shipping peak. It's hard to prove whether the EC2602 contract is overvalued in the short term, and the cost - performance of short - selling is not high. Attention should be paid to the possibility of the off - season April contract being overvalued, and the positive spread opportunity between the EC2602 and EC2604 contracts [8]. Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Spot Market: The SCFIS index declined again this week, showing that the price increase implementation at the end of November and in the first half of December by shipping companies was below expectations. Taking the Shanghai - Rotterdam route as an example, Maersk's quotes were more aggressive, suppressing other airlines' price - raising space, and there was a risk of other airlines cutting prices [8]. - Operation Suggestions: Due to the late Spring Festival, it's difficult to prove the overvaluation of the EC2602 contract in the short term, and short - selling has low cost - performance. Attention should be paid to the overvaluation possibility of the April contract and the positive spread opportunity between the EC2602 and EC2604 contracts [8]. 2. Industry News - Overall Market: From November 24 to 28, the China export container transportation market was generally stable, with different routes showing differentiated trends. The comprehensive index rose slightly. On November 28, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index was 1403.13 points, up 0.7% from the previous period [9]. - European Routes: The eurozone's November composite PMI was above the boom - bust line, but there was a split between the service and manufacturing sectors. The transportation demand was stable, and the spot market booking price rebounded after continuous declines. On November 28, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to European basic ports rose 2.7% from the previous period [9]. - Mediterranean Routes: The market situation was in sync with European routes, and the freight rate rebounded. On November 28, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to Mediterranean basic ports rose 8.6% from the previous period [9]. - North American Routes: The US labor market showed mixed signals, with initial jobless claims decreasing but continuing claims rising. The transportation demand was stable, and the freight rates of the US West and East routes showed different trends. On November 28, the freight rate to the US West decreased by 0.8% and that to the US East increased by 1.8% from the previous period [10]. - Geopolitical News: There were multiple geopolitical events related to the Israel - Hamas conflict, including cease - fire threats, military operations, and international responses [10]. 3. Data Overview 3.1 Spot Freight Prices - SCFIS Index: The SCFIS index for European routes decreased from 1639.37 on November 24 to 1483.65 on December 1, a decline of 9.5%. The SCFIS index for US West routes decreased from 1107.85 to 948.77, a decline of 14.4% [12]. 3.2 Futures Market Data - Contract Details: The report provided trading data for multiple contracts on December 4, including EC2512, EC2602, etc., showing information such as opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, and trading volume [6].