大越期货天胶早报-20251205

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating for the natural rubber industry [4] Core Viewpoint - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot is strong, domestic inventories are starting to decrease, and tire operating rates are at a high level. The market has support below, and it is advisable to buy on dips [4] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The supply is starting to increase, the spot is strong, domestic inventories are starting to decrease, and tire operating rates are at a high level. The market has support below, and it is advisable to buy on dips [4] 2. Fundamental Data 2.1 Spot Price - The spot price of 2023 whole latex (non - deliverable) fell on December 4th [8] - The US dollar quote in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone is not detailed in the report 2.2 Inventory - The exchange inventory remained unchanged [14] - The inventory in Qingdao area has rebounded recently [17] - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased week - on - week and decreased year - on - year; the inventory in Qingdao area increased both week - on - week and year - on - year [4] 2.3 Import - The import quantity declined [20] 2.4 Downstream Consumption - Automobile production and sales increased seasonally [23][26] - Tire production reached a new high in the same period [29] - Tire industry exports declined [32] 3. Long - Short Factors 3.1 Bullish Factors - Downstream consumption is high [6] - Spot prices are resistant to decline [6] - Anti - involution in the domestic market [6] 3.2 Bearish Factors - Supply is increasing [6] - Domestic economic indicators are bearish [6] - Trade frictions [6] 4. Basis - The spot price is 14,650, and the basis is - 390, which is bearish [4] - The basis weakened on December 4th [35]