大越期货油脂早报-20251205

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The prices of edible oils are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the supply of domestic edible oils is stable. Sino - US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the price of new US soybeans due to受挫 exports. Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic edible oil fundamentals are neutral, and import inventory is stable. [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - Soybean Oil - Fundamentals: The MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production in August decreased by 9.8% month - on - month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month - on - month to 1.49 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory decreased by 2.6% month - on - month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral with less - than - expected production cuts. Currently, shipping survey agencies show that Malaysian palm oil export data this month has increased by 4% month - on - month. Subsequently, as it enters the production - reducing season, the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease. [2] - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,394, with a basis of 140, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. [2] - Inventory: On September 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% higher year - on - year. [2] - Market: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. [2] - Main positions: The long positions of soybean oil's main contract are increasing. [2] - Expectation: The soybean oil Y2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,000 - 8,400. [2] Daily View - Palm Oil - Fundamentals: Similar to soybean oil, but it will enter the production - increasing season, so the palm oil supply will increase. [3] - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 8,700, with a basis of 34, indicating a neutral situation. [3] - Inventory: On September 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous period and 34.1% lower year - on - year. [3] - Market: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. [3] - Main positions: The short positions of palm oil's main contract are decreasing. [3] - Expectation: The palm oil P2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,400 - 8,800. [3] Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - Fundamentals: Similar to the above two, entering the production - increasing season with an increase in palm oil supply. [4] - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10,045, with a basis of 427, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. [4] - Inventory: On September 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% higher year - on - year. [4] - Market: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. [4] - Main positions: The long positions of rapeseed oil's main contract are increasing. [4] - Expectation: The rapeseed oil OI2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,400 - 9,800. [4] Recent利多and利空Analysis - 利多: The US soybean stock - to - use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply, and there is the palm oil tremor season. [5] - 利空: Edible oil prices are at a historically high level, domestic edible oil inventories are continuously increasing, the macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related edible oils is high. [5] - Main logic: The global edible oil fundamentals are relatively loose. [5]