大越期货沥青期货早报-20251205

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of asphalt is expected to increase in the short - term as refineries have recently increased production. The overall demand is lower than the historical average due to the off - season, and the inventory remains stable. With the strengthening of crude oil, the cost support has strengthened in the short - term. It is predicted that the asphalt 2602 contract will fluctuate in the range of 2926 - 2978 [7]. - The positive factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support, while the negative factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods and the overall downward demand with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States. The main logic is that the supply pressure remains high and the demand recovery is weak [10][11][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoint - Supply Side: In December 2025, the total planned asphalt production is 2158000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.24%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples is 29.4823%, a month - on - month increase of 3.056 percentage points. The national sample enterprises' shipment is 262100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.74%, and the sample enterprises' output is 492000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.56%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprises' devices is 866000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.60%. Refineries have increased production this week, increasing the supply pressure, and it may further increase next week [7]. - Demand Side: The construction rate of heavy - traffic asphalt is 27.8%, a month - on - month increase of 0.12 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the construction rate of building asphalt is 6.6%, the same as last month, lower than the historical average; the construction rate of modified asphalt is 10.5658%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.02 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the construction rate of road - modified asphalt is 29%, a month - on - month decrease of 5.00 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the construction rate of waterproofing membranes is 33.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.20 percentage points, lower than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [7]. - Cost Side: The daily processing profit of asphalt is - 496.91 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 2.60%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 1102.9986 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.49%. The processing loss of asphalt has increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has increased. With the strengthening of crude oil, it is expected that the support will strengthen in the short - term [7]. - Basis: On December 4th, the spot price in Shandong is 2940 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 02 contract is - 23 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. It is neutral [7]. - Inventory: The social inventory is 745000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.74%. The in - factory inventory is 588000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.20%. The port diluted asphalt inventory is 570000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 28.75%. The social inventory is continuously decreasing, the in - factory inventory is continuously increasing, and the port inventory is continuously decreasing. It is neutral [7]. - Market: The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 02 contract closes below the MA20. It is bearish [7]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing. It is bearish [7]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend: There are charts showing the basis trends of asphalt in Shandong and East China from 2020 to 2025 [18][20]. - Spread Analysis - Main Contract Spread: There are charts showing the spread trends of asphalt 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts from 2020 to 2025 [23]. - Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend: There are charts showing the price trends of asphalt, Brent oil, and West Texas oil from 2020 to 2025 [26]. - Crude Oil Cracking Spread: There are charts showing the cracking spreads of asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent from 2020 to 2025 [29][30]. - Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend: There are charts showing the price ratio trends of asphalt - SC and asphalt - fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 [34]. 3.3 Asphalt Spot Market - There is a chart showing the price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [36]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit Analysis - Asphalt Profit: There is a chart showing the asphalt profit from 2019 to 2025 [39]. - Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend: There is a chart showing the coking - asphalt profit spread trend from 2020 to 2025 [43]. - Supply Side - Shipment Volume: There is a chart showing the weekly shipment volume of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2025 [46]. - Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory: There is a chart showing the domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 [48]. - Output: There are charts showing the weekly and monthly output of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [51]. - Marey Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Output Trend: There is a chart showing the Marey crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly output trend from 2018 to 2025 [56]. - Local Refinery Asphalt Output: There is a chart showing the local refinery asphalt output from 2019 to 2025 [58]. - Operating Rate: There is a chart showing the weekly operating rate of asphalt from 2021 to 2025 [61]. - Estimated Maintenance Loss Volume: There is a chart showing the estimated maintenance loss volume trend from 2018 to 2025 [64]. - Inventory - Exchange Warehouse Receipts: There are charts showing the exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) from 2019 to 2025 [67][68]. - Social Inventory and In - Factory Inventory: There are charts showing the social inventory (70 samples) and in - factory inventory (54 samples) of asphalt from 2022 to 2025 [71]. - In - Factory Inventory Inventory Ratio: There is a chart showing the in - factory inventory inventory ratio from 2018 to 2025 [74]. - Import and Export Situation - There are charts showing the asphalt export and import trends from 2019 to 2025 [77]. - There is a chart showing the import price spread trend of South Korean asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [80]. - Demand Side - Petroleum Coke Output: There is a chart showing the petroleum coke output from 2019 to 2025 [83]. - Apparent Consumption: There is a chart showing the apparent consumption of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [86]. - Downstream Demand - There are charts showing the highway construction transportation fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 to 2025 [89][90]. - There are charts showing the sales volume of asphalt concrete pavers, the monthly operating hours of excavators, the domestic excavator sales volume, and the roller sales volume from 2019 to 2025 [93][95]. - Asphalt Operating Rate - There is a chart showing the heavy - traffic asphalt operating rate from 2019 to 2025 [98]. - There are charts showing the construction asphalt and modified asphalt operating rates from 2019 to 2025 [101]. - Downstream Operating Conditions: There are charts showing the operating rates of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [104][106]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: There is a monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to December 2025, including data on downstream demand, port inventory, factory inventory, social inventory, export volume, import volume, and output [109].