大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20251205

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is in a state of tight supply - demand balance, with sentiment fluctuations triggered by news. The 2605 contract of lithium carbonate is expected to oscillate in the range of 90,380 - 94,140 yuan/ton. The overall evaluation of the fundamentals, basis, and inventory is neutral, the disk is bullish, and the main position is bearish [10][11][14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - Supply: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 21,865 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.19%, higher than the historical average. In November 2025, lithium carbonate production was 95,350 physical tons, and the predicted production for next month is 98,210 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.00%. The import volume in November was 25,500 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 27,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.88% [8][10]. - Demand: Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 104,341 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.71%. The inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 19,361 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.37%. Next month's demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may decline [8][10]. - Cost: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is 94,255 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 1.12%, and the production income is - 1,559 yuan/ton, showing a loss. The cost of purchased lithium mica is 92,638 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 1.26%, and the production income is - 2,247 yuan/ton, also showing a loss. The production cost at the recycling end is generally higher than that at the ore end, and the production income is negative, with low production scheduling enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost at the salt lake end is 31,477 yuan/ton, significantly lower than the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production scheduling motivation [9]. - Other Indicators: On December 4th, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 94,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 300 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures. The smelter inventory was 24,324 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.81%, lower than the historical average. The downstream inventory was 41,984 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.51%, higher than the historical average. The other inventory was 49,660 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.72%, higher than the historical average. The overall inventory was 115,968 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.07%, higher than the historical average. The MA20 of the disk is upward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed above the MA20. The net position of the main players is short, and the short position is decreasing [10][11]. - Factors Affecting the Market: Bullish factors include the production cut plan of lithium mica manufacturers and the month - on - month decline in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile. Bearish factors are the continuous high supply at the ore/salt lake end with limited decline [12][13]. 3.2 Lithium Carbonate Market Overview - Price Changes: The price of lithium spodumene (6%) decreased by 1.53% to 1,162 US dollars/ton. The price of lithium mica concentrate (2% - 2.5%) decreased by 1.76% to 2,515 yuan/ton. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.37% to 94,000 yuan/ton, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.38% to 91,550 yuan/ton [15]. - Supply - side Data: The weekly operating rate was 75.34%, unchanged from the previous period. The daily production cost of lithium spodumene was 94,255 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.13%. The monthly processing cost was 20,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.44%. The monthly total production of lithium carbonate was 95,350 tons, an increase of 3.35% [20]. - Demand - side Data: The monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate was 76%, an increase of 5.56%. The monthly production was 348,500 tons, an increase of 5.14%. The monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate lithium was 59.72%, an increase of 12.11%. The monthly production was 412,850 tons, an increase of 4.69% [20]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - Price and Production: The price of lithium ore has fluctuated over the years. The production of Chinese sample lithium spodumene mines and domestic lithium mica has shown different trends in different years [28]. - Supply and Demand Balance: From 2024 to 2025, the supply and demand of domestic lithium ore have been in a state of dynamic balance, with different balance values in each month [31]. 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - Operating Rate and Production: The weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt lake, and recycled materials) and the total operating rate have shown fluctuations over time. The production of lithium carbonate has also changed accordingly [34]. - Supply and Demand Balance: From 2024 to 2025, the supply and demand of lithium carbonate have been balanced, with different balance values in each month. The demand, production, import, and export volumes have all changed [40]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - Capacity Utilization and Production: The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic lithium hydroxide has changed over the years. The production of lithium hydroxide from different sources (smelting and causticization) and the total production have also shown different trends [43]. - Supply and Demand Balance: From 2024 to 2025, the supply and demand of lithium hydroxide have been balanced, with different balance values in each month. The demand, production, import, and export volumes have all changed [46]. 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost and Profit - Cost and Profit of Different Lithium Compounds: The cost and profit of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica concentrate, recycled materials, and the profit of lithium carbonate import, purification, and causticization have all shown different trends over time [49][50][54]. 3.7 Inventory - Lithium Carbonate Inventory: The weekly and monthly inventories of lithium carbonate in smelters, downstream, and other sectors have changed, with the overall inventory showing a week - on - week decrease of 2.07% [11][56]. - Lithium Hydroxide Inventory: The monthly inventories of lithium hydroxide in downstream and smelting sectors have also changed [56]. 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - Price, Production, and Shipment: The price of batteries, the monthly production of battery cells, the monthly loading volume of power batteries, the monthly shipment volume of power cells, and the export volume of lithium batteries have all shown different trends over time [60]. 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - Price, Cost, and Production: The price of ternary precursors, the cost and profit of ternary precursor 523 (polycrystalline/consumer), the processing fee, the capacity utilization rate, the capacity, and the monthly production have all changed [65]. - Supply and Demand Balance: From 2024 to 2025, the supply and demand of ternary precursors have been balanced, with different balance values in each month. The demand, production, import, and export volumes have all changed [68]. 3.10 Demand - Ternary Material - Price, Cost, and Production: The price of ternary materials, the cost - profit trend, the weekly operating rate, the capacity, the production, the processing fee, the export volume, the import volume, and the weekly inventory have all changed [71][73]. 3.11 Demand - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium - Price, Cost, and Production: The price of iron phosphate/iron phosphate lithium, the production cost of iron phosphate, the cost - profit of iron phosphate lithium, the capacity, the monthly operating rate, the monthly production, and the weekly inventory have all changed [75][78][80]. 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - Production, Sales, and Penetration: The production, export volume, sales volume, sales penetration rate, retail - wholesale ratio, dealer inventory warning index, and dealer inventory index of new energy vehicles have all changed over time [83][84][87].