广发期货《黑色》日报-20251205

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - The steel market shows a pattern of continued differentiation in inventory reduction between rebar and hot-rolled coils. Rebar maintains good inventory reduction due to production cuts, while hot-rolled coils have a slower inventory reduction. It is expected that the spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar will continue to narrow in January. The overall supply and demand situation indicates a year-on-year decrease in demand intensity in the second half of the year, with a seasonal weakening expectation on a month-on-month basis. However, the reduction in hot metal production provides support for steel prices. Steel prices are expected to maintain a range-bound oscillation. The reference range for rebar is 3000 - 3200, and for hot-rolled coils, it is 3250 - 3400. The spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar has converged to 180, and the current position can be held. Considering the decline in hot metal, which suppresses iron ore prices, the long rebar and short iron ore arbitrage in the January contract can continue to be held [1]. Iron Ore Industry - The iron ore futures showed a weak oscillation yesterday. On the supply side, the global iron ore shipment volume increased week-on-week last week, while the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased. On the demand side, steel mills continued to cut production, hot metal production decreased, and steel mills increased maintenance. Steel prices rebounded in oscillation, and the profitability of steel mills improved. From the data of the five major steel products, it can be seen that steel production decreased, inventory continued to decline, and apparent demand decreased seasonally. In terms of inventory, iron ore port inventory increased, while the port clearance volume decreased, and the equity inventory of steel mills increased. Looking ahead, with the decline in hot metal this week, steel prices showed signs of bottoming out and rebounding, and market expectations began to improve. With the recovery of downstream demand, there is no basis for a significant decline in hot metal production, which provides support for iron ore demand. Iron ore is supported by downstream restocking on the one hand and has a need for basis repair on the other hand. Considering the high price level, iron ore futures will oscillate in the range of 750 - 820 [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - Coke: The coke futures showed an oscillating rebound yesterday. The port trade quotes stabilized, and the first round of price cuts by steel mills was implemented after four rounds of price increases. In the short term, there is still an expectation of further price cuts, and port prices have fallen in advance. On the supply side, the price reduction range of coking coal in the Shanxi market has expanded, and the auction prices of various coal types have begun to decline. Coking profits have improved, and coke price adjustments lag behind coking coal, and coke price cuts lag behind coking coal price reductions. Coking plant operating rates have increased. On the demand side, steel mills have increased maintenance due to losses, hot metal production has declined, steel prices have rebounded in oscillation, and steel mill profits have improved, with an intention to suppress coke prices. In terms of inventory, coking plants have increased inventory, while ports and steel mills have reduced inventory. The overall inventory has slightly increased, and the supply and demand of coke have weakened. The coke futures have fallen in advance, basically over - discounting the expected price cuts in the spot market. Considering that there is no problem of cornering the market with coke warehouse receipts, the room for further decline is limited. Strategically, it should be viewed as an oscillating market, with a reference range of 1550 - 1700, and a reverse arbitrage between the January and May contracts of coke is recommended [7]. - Coking Coal: The coking coal futures showed an oscillating rebound yesterday, while the spot market continued to decline, and the rebound space of the spot - weakening market is limited. In the spot market, the high - price auction prices of Shanxi coking coal have declined, and Mongolian coal quotes have stabilized. Recently, the rate of auction failures has decreased, and traders are cautiously waiting and watching. The power coal market has continued to decline, and the coal spot market has shifted back to a loose state. On the supply side, coal mine shipments are poor, daily production has slightly decreased, 3 new coal mines with a total capacity of 300,000 tons have stopped production, and 4 new coal mines with a total capacity of 420,000 tons have resumed production. Coal production may continue to decline near the end of the year. In terms of imported coal, the growth rate of port inventory has slowed down, and Mongolian coal quotes have stabilized following the futures. On the demand side, steel mills have increased maintenance due to losses, hot metal production has declined, coking plant operating rates have slightly increased after the recovery of coking profits, and the restocking demand in the downward market has weakened. In terms of inventory, coking plants and steel mills have reduced inventory, while coal mines, coal washing plants, ports, and border ports have increased inventory. The overall inventory has slightly increased. In terms of policy, ensuring the supply of long - term contract coal for power plants remains the main theme, and a coal mine with a capacity of 180,000 tons in Inner Mongolia has shut down. Strategically, the spot prices of coking coal and coke continue to decline, and after a significant decline in the futures market, it will oscillate in a range. It should be viewed as an oscillating market, with a reference range of 1050 - 1150, and a reverse arbitrage between the January and May contracts of coking coal is recommended [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Industry - Steel Prices and Spreads: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils in different regions and contracts showed various changes. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China remained at 3300 yuan/ton, while the 01 contract price increased by 11 yuan to 3148 yuan/ton. The spot price of hot - rolled coils in East China increased by 10 yuan to 3310 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract price increased by 4 yuan to 3323 yuan/ton [1]. - Cost and Profit: The steel billet price remained at 2990 yuan/ton, and the plate billet price remained at 3730 yuan/ton. The cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar increased by 2 yuan to 3247 yuan/ton, and the profit of East China hot - rolled coils decreased by 5 yuan to - 29 yuan/ton [1]. - Production: The daily average hot metal production decreased by 2.0 tons to 232.0 tons, a decrease of 0.9%. The production of the five major steel products decreased by 26.8 tons to 829.0 tons, a decrease of 3.1%. The rebar production decreased by 16.8 tons to 189.3 tons, a decrease of 8.1% [1]. - Inventory: The inventory of the five major steel products decreased by 35.2 tons to 1365.6 tons, a decrease of 2.5%. The rebar inventory decreased by 27.7 tons to 503.8 tons, a decrease of 5.2%. The hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 0.5 tons to 400.4 tons, a decrease of 0.1% [1]. - Trading Volume and Demand: The building materials trading volume increased by 0.4 to 9.4, an increase of 4.5%. The apparent demand of the five major steel products decreased by 23.8 tons to 864.2 tons, a decrease of 2.7%. The apparent demand of rebar decreased by 11.0 tons to 217.0 tons, a decrease of 4.8% [1]. Iron Ore Industry - Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads: The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore types decreased slightly. For example, the warehouse receipt cost of Carajás fines decreased by 6.6 yuan to 796.7 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.8%. The 01 contract basis of PB fines increased by 1.7 yuan to 46.9 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.8% [3]. - Spot Prices and Price Indices: The spot prices of various iron ore types at Rizhao Port decreased slightly. For example, the price of Carajás fines at Rizhao Port decreased by 6.0 yuan to 877.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.7% [3]. - Supply: The 45 - port arrival volume (weekly) decreased by 117.8 tons to 2699.3 tons, a decrease of 4.2%. The global shipment volume (weekly) increased by 44.8 tons to 3323.2 tons, an increase of 1.4% [3]. - Demand: The daily average hot metal production of 247 steel mills (weekly) decreased by 2.4 tons to 232.3 tons, a decrease of 1.0%. The 45 - port daily average port clearance volume (weekly) increased by 3.6 tons to 330.6 tons, an increase of 1.1% [3]. - Inventory Changes: The 45 - port inventory (weekly) increased by 27.3 tons to 15237.39 tons, an increase of 0.2%. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills (weekly) decreased by 58.8 tons to 8942.5 tons, a decrease of 0.7% [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - Coke - Related Prices and Spreads: The prices of various coke types and contracts changed. For example, the price of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) remained at 1662 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract price of coke increased by 27 yuan to 1652 yuan/ton [7]. - Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads: The prices of various coking coal types and contracts also changed. For example, the price of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal (warehouse receipt) remained at 1300 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract price of coking coal increased by 21 yuan to 1092 yuan/ton [7]. - Supply: The daily average production of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.8 tons to 64.5 tons, an increase of 1.2%. The daily average production of 247 steel mills increased by 0.3 tons to 46.6 tons, an increase of 0.6% [7]. - Demand: The hot metal production of 247 steel mills decreased by 2.4 tons to 232.3 tons, a decrease of 1.0%. The daily average production of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.8 tons to 64.5 tons, an increase of 1.2% [7]. - Inventory Changes: The total coke inventory decreased by 1.7 tons to 883.0 tons, a decrease of 0.24%. The coking coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines increased by 9.6 tons to 107.6 tons, an increase of 9.8% [7]. - Supply - Demand Gap Changes: The coke supply - demand gap increased by 1.8 tons to - 2.5 tons, an increase of 74.2% [7].