集运早报-20251205

Group 1: Futures Contract Information - EC2512 had a yesterday's closing price of 1649.1 with a decline of 0.27%, a basis of -165.5, a trading volume of 270, an open interest of 3731, and an open interest change of -82 [2] - EC2602 had a price of 1585.0 with an increase of 2.92%, a basis of -101.4, a trading volume of 27304, an open interest of 34222, and an open interest change of -786 [2] - EC2604 had a price of 1090.1 with an increase of 0.65%, a basis of 393.6, a trading volume of 2881, an open interest of 19129, and an open interest change of 132 [2] - EC2606 had a price of 1255.1 with an increase of 0.05%, a basis of 228.6, a trading volume of 178, an open interest of 2141, and an open interest change of -26 [2] - EC2608 had a price of 1385.6 with an increase of 0.40%, a basis of 98.1, a trading volume of 125, an open interest of 1549, and an open interest change of -28 [2] - EC2610 had a price of 1040.2 with a decline of 0.19%, a basis of 443.5, a trading volume of 297, an open interest of 3961, and an open interest change of 72 [2] Group 2: Spread Information - The EC2512 - 2504 spread was 559.0, compared to 561.5 the day before yesterday with a change of -11.4 [2] - The EC2512 - 2602 spread was 64.1, compared to 113.4 the day before yesterday with a change of -49.3 [2] - The EC2502 - 2604 spread was 401, compared to 457.0 the day before yesterday with a change of 37.9 [2] Group 3: Spot Index Information - The SCHIS index on 2025/12/1 was 1483.65, down 9.50% from the previous period [2] - The SCFI (European line) on 2025/11/28 was 1404 dollars/TEU, up 2.71% from the previous period [2] - The CCFI (European line) on 2025/11/28 was 1449.34 points, up 1.14% from the previous period [2] - The NCFI on 2025/11/28 was 1024.64 points, up 7.67% from the previous period [2] Group 4: Market Analysis and Outlook - The December contract is moving towards the delivery logic, with P1 around 1550 points. P2 and P3 are对标 to the second - half of December cabin positions, and the price is expected to be stable with a slight increase [3] - The 02 contract has a neutral valuation, follows the spot price in the short - term, and there is a game for the peak - season height. Although high capacity limits the upside, there is no overly pessimistic expectation due to the late Spring Festival, strong cargo volume on the European line this year, and the 02 contract covering the freight rates from the second - half of January to the first ten days of February [3] - The 04 contract has limited short - term downside space, and attention should be paid to the short - selling opportunities when it follows the near - month contracts to rise [3] Group 5: Recent Spot Market Situation - The price increase announcement in the first half of December failed. In Week 49, the average was 2360 dollars, equivalent to 1650 points on the futures market [4] - In Week 50, MSK's cabin opening price dropped to 2200 dollars, and other shipping companies followed suit. The current central price is 2270 dollars, equivalent to 1580 points on the futures market [4] - On Monday, YML reduced the price of two ships in Week 50 by 150 to 1750 dollars, while MSC increased it by 200 to 2600 dollars [4] - It is expected that shipping companies will announce price increases for January cabins in early December. MSK's opening price for Week 51 is 2400 dollars, a 200 - dollar increase from the previous period, equivalent to 1660 points on the futures market [4] - On Thursday, MSK issued a price - increase notice for January European lines, with the price rising to 3500 dollars [4]