Report Overview - Report Title: Copper Weekly Report - Date: December 5, 2025 - Author: Xu Liang (Z0002220) - Reviewer: Tang Yun (Z0002422) 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, but there is a risk of a high - level correction. Supply shortages and macro - economic positives support prices, but high prices suppress actual demand. Attention should be paid to the battle at the 90,000 yuan/ton mark [4][5] - Fundamental factors include a significant outflow of copper inventory from LME Asian warehouses and US stockpiling needs, which exacerbate regional shortages and push up prices; the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December has risen to 87%, with a weaker US dollar and expectations of loose liquidity supporting the financial attributes of copper prices; domestic electrolytic copper social inventory has increased, downstream buyers show obvious high - price aversion, with weak restocking willingness and light spot transactions; refined copper processing fees fluctuate at a low level, and rising costs are expected to lead to a decline in the operating rates of copper rod and strip enterprises, dragging down demand [4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Copper Futures Market Data (Weekly) - Prices and Changes: - The latest price of SHFE Copper Main Contract is 92,780 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 6.12% - The latest price of SHFE Copper Index - weighted is 92,725 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 6.12% - The latest price of International Copper is 83,390 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 5.87% - The latest price of LME Copper 3 - month is 11,434 US dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 4.61% - The latest price of COMEX Copper is 536.2 US dollars, with a weekly increase of 3.86% [6] - Positions and Changes: - The position of SHFE Copper Main Contract is 236,494 lots, with a weekly increase of 18,237 lots - The position of SHFE Copper Index - weighted is 653,661 lots, with a weekly increase of 107,150 lots - The position of International Copper is 5,499 lots, with a weekly increase of 4,210 lots - The position of LME Copper 3 - month is 239,014 lots, with a weekly decrease of 38,282 lots - The position of COMEX Copper is 141,978 lots, with a weekly increase of 7,685 lots [6] - Trading Volume: - The trading volume of SHFE Copper Main Contract is 188,062 lots - The trading volume of SHFE Copper Index - weighted is 402,980 lots - The trading volume of International Copper is 11,403 lots - The trading volume of LME Copper 3 - month is 24,540 lots - The trading volume of COMEX Copper is 42,574 lots [6] 3.2 Copper Spot Market Data (Weekly) - Spot Prices: - The latest price of Shanghai Non - Ferrous 1 Copper is 91,585 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 4,185 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 4.79% - The latest price of Shanghai Wumaotrade is 91,400 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 4,040 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 4.62% - The latest price of Guangdong Southern Reserve is 91,370 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 3,980 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 4.55% - The latest price of Yangtze Non - Ferrous is 91,540 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 4,100 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 4.69% [10][11] - Spot Premiums: - Shanghai Non - Ferrous premium is 170 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 60 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 54.55% - Shanghai Wumaotrade premium is 110 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 45 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 69.23% - Guangdong Southern Reserve premium is 140 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 35 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 33.33% - Yangtze Non - Ferrous premium is 155 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 40 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 34.78% - LME Copper (spot/3 - month) premium is 50.44 US dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 33.88 US dollars and a weekly increase rate of 204.59% - LME Copper (3 - month/15 - month) premium is 234.51 US dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 68.26 US dollars and a weekly increase rate of 41.06% [11] 3.3 Copper Advanced Data (Weekly) - Copper Import Profit and Loss: The latest value is - 1,227.97 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 367.03 yuan and a weekly decrease rate of 42.63% [12] - Copper Concentrate TC: The latest value is - 42.7 US dollars/ton, with a weekly decrease of 0.55 US dollars and a weekly decrease rate of 1.3% [12] - Copper - Aluminum Ratio: The latest value is 4.1251, with a weekly increase of 0.0734 and a weekly increase rate of 1.81% [12] - Refined - Scrap Copper Price Difference: The latest value is 5,510.64 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1,966.81 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 55.5% [12] 3.4 Copper Inventory (Weekly) - Warehouse Receipts and Inventories in China: - SHFE Copper warehouse receipts total 30,936 tons, with a weekly decrease of 4,308 tons and a weekly decrease rate of - 12.22% - International Copper warehouse receipts total 4,929 tons, with a weekly decrease of 573 tons and a weekly decrease rate of - 10.41% - SHFE Copper inventory is 88,905 tons, with a weekly decrease of 9,025 tons and a weekly decrease rate of - 9.22% [18] - LME Copper Inventory: - LME Copper registered warehouse receipts are 98,500 tons, with a weekly decrease of 52,600 tons and a weekly decrease rate of - 34.81% - LME Copper cancelled warehouse receipts are 64,325 tons, with a weekly increase of 58,250 tons and a weekly increase rate of 958.85% - LME Copper inventory is 162,825 tons, with a weekly increase of 5,650 tons and a weekly increase rate of 3.59% [18][20] - COMEX Copper Inventory: - COMEX Copper registered warehouse receipts are 251,509 tons, with a weekly increase of 57,173 tons and a weekly increase rate of 29.42% - COMEX Copper unregistered warehouse receipts are 184,322 tons, with a weekly decrease of 39,008 tons and a weekly decrease rate of - 17.47% - COMEX Copper inventory is 435,831 tons, with a weekly increase of 18,165 tons and a weekly increase rate of 4.35% [20] - Other Inventories: - Copper mine port inventory is 67.4 million tons, with a weekly increase of 7.8 million tons and a weekly increase rate of 13.09% - Social inventory is 41.82 million tons, with a weekly increase of 0.43 million tons and a weekly increase rate of 1.04% [20] 3.5 Copper Mid - stream Production (Monthly) - Refined Copper Production: In October 2025, the monthly production was 1.204 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.9%. The cumulative production from January to October was 12.295 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.7% [23] - Copper Products Production: In October 2025, the monthly production was 2.004 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.3%. The cumulative production from January to October was 20.124 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.9% [23] 3.6 Copper Mid - stream Capacity Utilization (Monthly) - Copper Rod Capacity Utilization: - The capacity utilization rate of refined copper rods in October 2025 was 56.2%, with a month - on - month decrease of 9.03% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.35% - The capacity utilization rate of scrap copper rods in October 2025 was 24.11%, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.26% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.69% [25] - Copper Plate and Strip Capacity Utilization: The capacity utilization rate of copper plates and strips in October 2025 was 63.84%, with a month - on - month decrease of 2.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.4% [25] - Copper Bar Capacity Utilization: The capacity utilization rate of copper bars in October 2025 was 50.13%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.77% and a year - on - year increase of 0.1% [25] - Copper Tube Capacity Utilization: The capacity utilization rate of copper tubes in October 2025 was 52.57%, with a month - on - month decrease of 6.87% and a year - on - year decrease of 15.63% [25] 3.7 Copper Element Imports (Monthly) - Copper Concentrate Imports: In October 2025, the monthly import volume was 2.451487 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%. The cumulative import volume from January to October was 25.098307 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8% [28] - Anode Copper Imports: In October 2025, the monthly import volume was 55,239 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. The cumulative import volume from January to October was 633,067 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15% [28] - Cathode Copper Imports: In October 2025, the monthly import volume was 279,944 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 22%. The cumulative import volume from January to October was 2,817,921 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6% [28] - Scrap Copper Imports: In October 2025, the monthly import volume was 196,607 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7%. The cumulative import volume from January to October was 1,895,530 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2% [28] - Copper Products Imports: In October 2025, the monthly import volume was 440,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.5%. The cumulative import volume from January to October was 4,460,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.1% [28]
铜周报：铜价延续上涨趋势-20251207
Dong Ya Qi Huo·2025-12-07 02:49