镍、不锈钢产业链周报-20251207

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Liduo Factors: Strong demand for MHP, high nickel and cobalt coefficients, and significant support near the cost line limit the downside space of nickel prices [3]. - Likong Factors: The continuous decline in ferronickel prices and the strong bearish sentiment on the supply side drag down the market, while the continuous increase in inventory and significant fundamental pressure suppress upward movement [3]. - Trading Consultation View: Although the short - term fundamentals are under pressure, the space is limited under cost support, and it is recommended to build long positions [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - Nickel Futures: The latest price of SHFE nickel main contract is 117,760 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan (-0.08%) week - on - week; SHFE nickel continuous contracts 1 - 3 have price increases ranging from 0.58% to 0.59%. LME nickel 3M is at 14,885 dollars/ton, up 65 dollars (0.60%) week - on - week. Open interest decreased by 4.0% to 118,041 lots, and trading volume decreased by 29.15% to 103,322 lots. Warehouse receipts increased by 5.36% to 35,096 tons, and the basis of the main contract increased by 250.00% to 105 yuan/ton [4]. - Stainless Steel Futures: The latest price of stainless steel main contract is 12,425 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; continuous contracts 1 - 3 have price increases of 0.49% - 0.68%. Trading volume decreased by 48.20% to 84,742 lots, open interest decreased by 11.43% to 96,076 lots, warehouse receipts decreased by 1.52% to 62,157 tons, and the basis of the main contract decreased by 9.92% to 545 yuan/ton [4]. - Spot Nickel: The prices of various types of nickel, including Jinchuan nickel, imported nickel, 1 electrolytic nickel, nickel beans, and electrowon nickel, all declined, with the decline ranging from 0.22% to 0.29% [4]. - Inventory: Domestic social nickel inventory is 55,349 tons, an increase of 3,090 tons; LME nickel inventory is 253,116 tons, an increase of 126 tons; stainless steel social inventory is 946.9 thousand tons, an increase of 0.9 thousand tons; ferronickel inventory is 29,346 tons, a decrease of 879 tons [6]. 3.2 Upstream Nickel Ore - Philippine Red - Laterite Nickel Ore: The average price of Philippine red - laterite nickel ore with 1.5% grade (FOB) is presented in a long - term trend chart [16]. - China's Port Nickel Ore Inventory: China's port nickel ore inventory shows a seasonal trend from 2021 - 2025 [16]. - Nickel Pig Iron Price: The average national ex - factory price of 8 - 12% nickel pig iron and the average landed - duty - paid price of Ni≥14% Indonesian nickel pig iron are presented in trend charts [17]. - Nickel Pig Iron Production: China and Indonesia's nickel pig iron monthly production shows seasonal trends from 2021 - 2025 [19][20]. 3.3 Downstream Nickel Sulfate - Battery - Grade Nickel Sulfate Price: The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate shows a trend from 2024 - 2025, and its premium over primary nickel (plate) is also presented [22][24]. - Profit Margin: The profit margin of producing nickel sulfate from nickel beans and the profit margin of producing electrowon nickel from externally purchased nickel sulfate in China show seasonal trends [25]. - Production and Capacity: China's monthly production of nickel sulfate (in metal tons) and the seasonal monthly capacity of ternary precursors are presented from 2021 - 2025 [26]. 3.4 Stainless Steel - Profit Margin: The seasonal profit margin of China's 304 stainless steel cold - rolled coils from 2021 - 2025 is presented [28]. - Production and Inventory: Stainless steel monthly production and inventory show seasonal trends from 2021 - 2025 [30][31].