油料周报-20251207

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - The overall inventory pressure in the oilseed industry remains high, but the extremely low absolute prices limit significant downside potential, and the supply - demand relationship shows no obvious improvement. Attention should be paid to the new USDA monthly supply - demand report, the import of US soybeans, the production in Brazil, and the impact of import tariffs on the rapeseed industry [5]. - In the oil market, the supply pressure persists, but the approaching year - end demand peak provides some support. The prices are expected to remain range - bound at low levels, and the absolute downside space may narrow as fundamentals are gradually digested [37][38]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - Supply Side - USDA will release a new monthly supply - demand report next week. Brazilian soybean sowing is progressing smoothly, and the market anticipates an increase in area, which may put pressure on the supply from March to May next year. Chinese port soybean inventories are sufficient, at a three - year high, leading to significant supply pressure. Import reduction has caused domestic rapeseed inventories to approach zero, and rapeseed and rapeseed oil imports are restricted by import tariffs [5]. - Canadian rapeseed imports are still not resumed, while Australian imports have increased recently. The expected rapeseed imports in December and January are at the historical average level [5]. - Demand Side - In the livestock and poultry breeding industry, losses have curbed purchasing enthusiasm, resulting in weak demand. The end of the peak season for aquatic product demand will further weaken the demand for rapeseed meal [5]. - China's procurement of US soybeans is still slow, and attention should be paid to the procurement volume from December to January [5]. 2. Oil Market - Soybean Oil - Supply remains relatively high as soybean crushing continues at a high level, and the supply - side pressure persists [37]. - The slowdown in the overseas biodiesel theme has put short - term pressure on oils. The approaching year - end demand peak provides some support for demand. With low prices and a weak fundamental outlook, prices are likely to remain range - bound at low levels, and the absolute downside space may narrow [38]. - Palm Oil - In Malaysia, monthly production and inventory have increased month - on - month, and the main producing regions have sufficient inventory, resulting in obvious supply pressure [38]. - Short - term Chinese imports have slowed down, leading to weak demand. However, the approaching Spring Festival may boost demand. The possible delay of Indonesia's B50 plan has weakened the demand expectation for palm oil as a biodiesel raw material. Attention should be paid to the potential inventory reduction cycle from December to February due to seasonal production cuts in the main producing regions [38]. - Rapeseed Oil - China's high tariffs on imported rapeseed products and the uncertainty of Canadian rapeseed imports have affected the supply of rapeseed oil raw materials [39]. - Low domestic rapeseed arrivals, reduced refinery operating rates, and tightened supply of imported rapeseed oil have led to a continuous decline in rapeseed oil inventory. Rapeseed oil is experiencing passive weak oscillations in the context of a weak overall oil market [39].