芳烃橡胶早报-20251208

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PTA, the short - term view is to wait and see, while in the long - term, the PX pattern is good, and there are opportunities for bottom - fishing long positions under the support of the raw material end [2][9] - For MEG, the short - term valuation is low but the driving force is limited, and the long - term pattern is expected to be weak [5] - For polyester staple fiber, the short - term inventory pressure is limited, but the pattern may weaken in the long - term, and attention should be paid to the warehouse receipt situation [5] - For natural rubber and 20 - number rubber, the current strategy is to wait and see due to stable national explicit inventory and stable Thai cup - lump price affected by rainfall [10] Summary by Related Categories PTA - Data Changes: The naphtha cracking spread increased by 0.5, PX processing difference decreased by 7, PTA processing difference decreased by 20, polyester gross profit decreased by 5, PTA balance load increased by 0.16, PTA load decreased by 11, the sum of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts increased by 18, TA basis increased by 33, and production and sales ratio increased by 0.1 [2] - Operation Status: The proximal TA device runs stably, the start - up rate is stable compared with the previous period, the polyester load increases slightly, the inventory remains stable, the basis is stable, and the spot processing fee improves compared with the previous period. The domestic start - up rate of PX is stable, and some overseas devices are running smoothly, with PXN strengthening compared with the previous period [2] - Future Outlook: The terminal weakening speed is accelerating, the inflection point of polyester load is approaching, the TA inventory will gradually accumulate again, but the overall pressure is not large and the valuation is not high [2] MEG - Data Changes: The price of Northeast Asian ethylene increased by 5, MEG outer - market price decreased by 7, MEG inner - market price decreased by 63, MEG East China price decreased by 63, MEG far - month price decreased by 50, MEG coal - based profit increased by 16.2, and MEG inner - market cash flow (ethylene) decreased by 88 [5] - Operation Status: The domestic MEG device has both overhauls and restarts, the start - up rate decreases slightly compared with the previous period, some overseas devices reduce their loads, the port inventory accumulates in the early next week, the arrival forecast within the week rebounds, the basis weakens, and the coal - based efficiency weakens again [5] - Future Outlook: After the EG price drops again, the coal - based losses intensify, and the supply side has some production cuts but fails to reverse the inventory accumulation trend. The short - term valuation is low but the driving force is limited, and the long - term pattern is expected to be weak [5] Polyester Staple Fiber - Data Changes: The price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber decreased by 30, the price of pure - polyester yarn remained unchanged, the profit of staple fiber increased by 8, and the profit of pure - polyester yarn increased by 10 [5] - Operation Status: The proximal device runs stably, the start - up rate remains at 97.5%, the production and sales are basically stable, and the inventory decreases compared with the previous period. On the demand side, the start - up rate of polyester yarn is stable, the raw material inventory decreases, and the finished product inventory accumulates, while the efficiency remains stable [5] - Future Outlook: The short - term inventory pressure is limited due to high exports, but the pattern may weaken in the long - term as the downstream enters the off - season and new devices are about to be put into operation [5] Styrene - Data Changes: The price of pure benzene (East China) increased by 10, the price of hydrogenated benzene (Shandong) increased by 20, the price of styrene (Jiangsu) increased by 35, the price of styrene (South China) increased by 45, and the profit of EPS domestic production increased by 20 [7] - Operation Status: The price of ethylene (CFR Northeast Asia) remains stable, and the price changes of related raw materials and products have different trends [7] Natural Rubber and 20 - number Rubber - Data Changes: The daily change in the price of US - dollar - denominated Thai standard rubber is 5, the weekly change is - 30; the daily change in the price of Shanghai full - latex rubber is 5, the weekly change is - 315; the daily change in RU main contract price is 25, the weekly change is - 345 [10] - Operation Status: The national explicit inventory is stable, and the absolute level is not high. The Thai cup - lump price is stable, and rainfall affects rubber tapping [10] - Strategy: Wait and see [10]