《能源化工》日报-20251208

1. Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for industries are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Natural Rubber - The price of Thai raw materials may accelerate its decline. With seasonal inventory accumulation pressure and poor terminal demand, multiple short - term negatives are suppressing the price. It is expected that the rubber price will fluctuate weakly [1]. Crude Oil - There are more positive factors in the news of the short - term crude oil market, and the oil price is generally strong. However, the main logic of the weak supply - demand pattern remains unchanged, and the rebound space of the oil price is limited. It is expected that the short - term Brent oil will fluctuate between $60 - 65 per barrel [4]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash: Although the inventory has decreased in stages, the over - supply problem still exists, and the demand is in a contraction pattern. It is expected to fluctuate weakly at the bottom. - Glass: In the short - term, there is still some rigid demand support, but in the long - term, the demand will shrink, and the price will be under pressure [6]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda: There is still pressure on supply and demand, and the price is expected to run weakly. - PVC: The supply pressure remains, and the demand is lackluster. It is expected to continue the range - bound operation and maintain a weak pattern at the bottom [7]. Methanol - The supply of inland methanol increases, but the profit is weak. The traditional downstream demand is supported, and the port is expected to reduce inventory. The price is currently weak [8][9]. Polyolefins - PP: Supply and demand both increase, and the overall valuation is neutral to low. - LLDPE: The supply increases, and attention should be paid to the basis repair near the delivery [14]. Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene: The supply is expected to remain stable, the demand support is limited, and the port is expected to accumulate inventory. The price drive is weak. - Styrene: The supply pressure eases, the supply - demand structure improves, but the upward space is limited due to weak cost support and seasonal weakening of terminal demand [16]. Urea - The daily production increases, the inventory decreases, and the orders increase. The overall supply - demand situation shows certain changes [17]. LPG - The price of LPG futures and spot shows a certain decline, the inventory decreases, and the downstream PDH start - up rate increases slightly [18]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: The short - term drive is limited, and the medium - term supply - demand is expected to improve, but the absolute price increase is restricted by the oil price. - PTA: The short - term supply - demand is tight, and it follows the raw material fluctuations. - Ethylene glycol: It is expected to continue to explore the bottom. - Short - fiber: The supply - demand is weak, and the processing fee is compressed. - Polyester bottle - chip: The supply - demand is loose, and the processing fee is expected to be squeezed [20]. 3. Summary by Catalog Natural Rubber - Spot Price and Basis: The price of Yunnan Guofu new - type rubber remained unchanged, the basis of whole - milk decreased, the price of Thai standard mixed rubber decreased, etc. [1]. - Inter - monthly Spread: The 9 - 1 spread increased, the 1 - 5 spread decreased, and the 5 - 9 spread increased [1]. - Fundamentals: The production in Thailand, Indonesia, and China decreased in October, while the production in India increased. The tire production and export decreased, and the natural rubber import decreased [1]. - Inventory Change: The bonded area inventory and the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber increased, and the出库 rate and入库 rate of dry rubber in Qingdao changed [1]. Crude Oil - Crude Oil Price and Spread: The prices of Brent, WTI, and SC increased, and the spreads between different contracts changed [4]. - Refined Oil Price and Spread: The prices of NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil increased, and the spreads between different contracts changed [4]. - Refined Oil Crack Spread: The crack spreads of some refined oil products changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [4]. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass - related Price and Spread: The prices of glass in different regions and different contracts changed, and the basis changed [6]. - Soda Ash - related Price and Spread: The prices of soda ash in different regions and different contracts changed, and the reference basis changed [6]. - Volume: The start - up rate and weekly output of soda ash decreased, and the melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass decreased [6]. - Inventory: The glass factory - warehouse inventory and soda ash factory - warehouse inventory decreased, and the soda ash delivery - warehouse inventory decreased significantly [6]. - Real Estate Data: The new - start area, construction area, and sales area decreased year - on - year, while the completion area increased [6]. PVC and Caustic Soda - PVC, Caustic Soda Spot & Futures: The prices of PVC and caustic soda in different regions and different contracts changed, and the spreads changed [7]. - Caustic Soda Overseas Quote & Export Profit: The FOB price of caustic soda in East China increased, and the export profit increased significantly [7]. - PVC Overseas Quote & Export Profit: The overseas quotes of PVC decreased, and the export profit decreased significantly [7]. - Supply: Chlor - alkali Start - up Rate & Industry Profit: The start - up rate of the caustic soda industry decreased slightly, and the start - up rate of PVC increased. The profits of different production processes changed [7]. - Demand: Caustic Soda Downstream Start - up Rate: The start - up rates of some downstream industries of caustic soda increased, while the start - up rate of the printing and dyeing industry decreased [7]. - Demand: PVC Downstream Products Start - up Rate: The start - up rates of PVC downstream products decreased slightly, and the pre - sales volume decreased slightly [7]. - Chlor - alkali Inventory: Social Inventory & Factory Inventory: The inventories of caustic soda and PVC in different regions increased [7]. Methanol - Methanol Price and Spread: The prices of methanol futures contracts decreased, and the spreads changed [8]. - Methanol Inventory: The enterprise inventory, port inventory, and social inventory of methanol decreased [8]. - Methanol Upstream and Downstream Start - up Rate: The upstream start - up rate increased slightly, and the start - up rates of some downstream industries changed [9]. Polyolefins - Futures Closing Price: The closing prices of LLDPE and PP futures contracts decreased [14]. - Futures Contract Spread: The spreads between different contracts of LLDPE and PP changed [14]. - Spot Price and Basis: The spot prices of LLDPE and PP decreased, and the basis changed [14]. - PE and PP Inventory: The enterprise inventories of PE and PP decreased, and the social inventory of PE decreased slightly [14]. - PE and PP Upstream and Downstream Start - up Rate: The start - up rates of PE and PP devices and downstream industries changed [14]. Benzene - Styrene - Upstream Price and Spread: The prices of crude oil, naphtha, ethylene, and pure benzene changed, and the spreads changed [16]. - Benzene - Styrene - related Price and Spread: The prices of benzene - styrene futures and spot changed, and the spreads changed [16]. - Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventory: The port inventories of pure benzene and styrene changed [16]. - Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry Chain Start - up Rate: The start - up rates of different industries in the pure benzene and styrene industry chain changed [16]. Urea - Futures Price and Spread: The prices of urea futures contracts decreased, and the spreads changed [17]. - Main Position and Trading Volume: The positions and trading volumes of the main futures contracts changed [17]. - Raw Material and Spot Price: The prices of upstream raw materials and urea in different regions changed [17]. - Supply and Demand: The daily and weekly production, inventory, and order days of urea changed [17]. LPG - LPG Price and Spread: The prices of LPG futures contracts decreased, and the spreads changed [18]. - LPG Outer - market Price: The outer - market prices of LPG increased [18]. - LPG Inventory: The refinery inventory ratio, port inventory, and port inventory ratio of LPG decreased [18]. - LPG Upstream and Downstream Start - up Rate: The start - up rates of upstream and downstream industries of LPG changed [18]. Polyester Industry Chain - Upstream Price: The prices of crude oil, naphtha, MX, and ethylene changed [20]. - Downstream Polyester Product Price and Cash Flow: The prices and cash flows of polyester products such as POY, FDY, and DTY changed [20]. - PX - related Price and Spread: The prices of PX and its spreads changed [20]. - PTA - related Price and Spread: The prices of PTA and its spreads changed [20]. - MEG - related Price and Spread: The prices of MEG and its spreads changed [20]. - Polyester Industry Chain Start - up Rate: The start - up rates of different industries in the polyester industry chain changed [20].