《有色》日报-20251208
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-12-08 02:11
  1. Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Tin - Considering the strong fundamentals, tin prices are expected to remain strong within the year. It is recommended to maintain a bullish view on tin prices, hold existing long positions, and consider buying on dips. Keep an eye on macro - level changes and supply - side dynamics [1]. Nickel - Macro conditions are temporarily stable. After the valuation of nickel prices is repaired, the price drivers weaken. With the decline of the nickel ore benchmark price in Indonesia and the accelerating inventory accumulation in China, the medium - term fundamentals are loose, restricting the upside potential of prices. In the short term, the market is expected to fluctuate within a range, with the main contract reference range of 116,000 - 120,000. Pay attention to macro expectations and Indonesian industrial policy news [3]. Stainless Steel - Macro conditions are temporarily stable, and the supply pressure eases slightly. However, demand is weak in the off - season, and inventory reduction is difficult. In the short term, there is an expectation of price repair due to low valuation and improved market sentiment, but the driving force is limited. The market is expected to fluctuate and adjust, with the main contract reference range of 12,400 - 12,800. Follow up on the implementation of steel mill production cuts and nickel - iron transactions [5]. Lithium Carbonate - Last week, the center of the lithium carbonate futures price moved down, with large intraday fluctuations and increased market divergence. The fundamentals remain generally stable with strong supply and demand. The market is expected to be weak and fluctuate in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 90,000 - 95,000. Pay attention to the resumption of production by large manufacturers and the sustainability of off - season demand [7]. Industrial Silicon - The market is expected to maintain a weak supply - demand situation in December. Industrial silicon prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level, with the main price range of 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton. Consider buying on dips if the price falls to 8,500 - 8,700 yuan/ton [9]. Polysilicon - The current contradiction lies between the strong futures market with low warehouse receipts and the weak spot market with oversupply. Polysilicon futures may continue to fluctuate at a high level, but considering the weak demand, the probability of price decline is high. It is recommended to wait and see, and those with short positions can hold them [11]. Zinc - As TC gradually declines, smelting profits are compressed, and production is limited. The opening of the zinc ingot export space eases the domestic supply pressure, and the demand side shows structural improvement. In the short term, the downside space of zinc prices is limited, and the Shanghai zinc price may be stronger than the London zinc price. Pay attention to the TC inflection point and refined zinc inventory changes, with the main contract reference range of 22,500 - 23,500 [13]. Copper - The high copper price is mainly driven by supply and inventory imbalances. In the short term, the price may fluctuate sharply, and in the medium - to - long term, the supply - demand contradiction will support the price to gradually move up. Pay attention to the structural changes in domestic and overseas inventories and the risk of cornering the market, with the main contract reference range of 90,000 - 91,000 [15]. Alumina - The oversupply situation of alumina remains unchanged, and the price is expected to remain at the bottom and fluctuate. The key to a market rebound lies in the actual production cuts of enterprises and the inflection point of inventory, with the main contract reference range of 2,550 - 2,800 yuan/ton [17]. Aluminum - The electrolytic aluminum market is expected to remain strong in the short term, but there is a risk of a pull - back after the price rises. Pay attention to the Fed's interest - rate decision and the actual inventory reduction in China, with the main contract reference range of 21,700 - 22,500 yuan/ton [17]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy market is expected to fluctuate narrowly at a high level in the short term. The ADC12 price has limited downside space due to cost support, but high inventory and high prices restrict upward breakthroughs. Pay attention to the improvement of scrap aluminum supply and downstream procurement rhythm, with the main contract reference range of 20,800 - 21,600 yuan/ton [18]. 3. Summary by Directory Tin - Spot Prices and Basis: SMM 1 tin price decreased by 0.88% to 314,800 yuan/ton, and SMM 1 tin premium decreased by 75% to 50 yuan/ton [1]. - Internal - External Price Ratio and Import Profit/Loss: The import loss improved by 4.56% to - 16,618.50 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio was 7.87 [1]. - Monthly Spread: The spread between 2512 - 2601 contracts increased by 22.54% to - 550 [1]. - Fundamental Data: In October, tin ore imports increased by 33.49%, SMM refined tin production increased by 53.09%, and refined tin imports decreased by 58.55% [1]. - Inventory Changes: SHEF weekly inventory increased by 7.96%, and social inventory increased by 2.39% [1]. Nickel - Prices and Basis: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 0.29% to 120,050 yuan/ton [3]. - Electrolytic Nickel Production Cost: The cost of integrated MHP - produced electrolytic nickel increased by 0.19% to 111,026 yuan/ton [3]. - New Energy Material Prices: The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate decreased by 0.04% to 27,530 yuan/ton [3]. - Monthly Spread: The spread between 2601 - 2602 contracts increased by 20 to - 160 yuan/100 [3]. - Supply - Demand and Inventory: China's refined nickel production decreased by 9.38%, and SHFE inventory increased by 4.23% [3]. Stainless Steel - Prices and Basis: The price of 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) increased by 0.40% to 12,700 yuan/ton [5]. - Raw Material Prices: The average price of Philippine laterite nickel ore (1.5%, CIF) remained unchanged at 57 US dollars/wet ton [5]. - Monthly Spread: The spread between 2601 - 2602 contracts increased by 5 to - 90 yuan/ton [5]. - Fundamental Data: China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production decreased by 0.72% to 178.70 million tons [5]. Lithium Carbonate - Prices and Basis: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price decreased by 0.80% to 93,250 yuan/ton [7]. - Monthly Spread: The spread between 2512 - 2601 contracts increased by 1,500 to - 80 yuan/ton [7]. - Fundamental Data: In November, lithium carbonate production increased by 3.35%, and demand increased by 5.11% [7]. - Inventory: In November, total lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 23.36% [7]. Industrial Silicon - Spot Prices and Main Contract Basis: The price of East China oxygen - containing SI5530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9,450 yuan/ton [9]. - Monthly Spread: The spread between 2512 - 2601 contracts increased by 105 to 155 [9]. - Fundamental Data (Monthly): National industrial silicon production decreased by 11.17% to 40.17 million tons [9]. Polysilicon - Spot Prices and Main Contract Basis: The average price of N - type re -投料 remained unchanged at 52,300 yuan/kg [11]. - Futures Prices and Monthly Spread: The main contract price decreased by 2.47% to 55,510 [11]. - Fundamental Data (Weekly and Monthly): Weekly polysilicon production increased by 7.50% to 2.58 million tons, and monthly production decreased by 14.48% to 11.46 million tons [11]. - Inventory Changes: Polysilicon inventory increased by 3.56% to 29.10 million tons [11]. Zinc - Prices and Basis: SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.61% to 23,130 yuan/ton [13]. - Monthly Spread: The spread between 2512 - 2601 contracts increased by 5 to - 40 yuan/ton [13]. - Fundamental Data: In November, refined zinc production decreased by 3.56% to 59.52 million tons [13]. - Inventory: China's zinc ingot seven - region social inventory decreased by 5.27% to 14.03 million tons [13]. Copper - Prices and Basis: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.37% to 91,282 yuan/ton [15]. - Monthly Spread: The spread between 2512 - 2601 contracts decreased by 40 to - 60 yuan/ton [15]. - Fundamental Data: In November, electrolytic copper production increased by 1.05% to 110.31 million tons [15]. - Inventory: Domestic social inventory decreased by 8.41% to 15.89 million tons [15]. Alumina - Prices and Spread: SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 0.32% to 22,090 yuan/ton [17]. - Monthly Spread: The spread between AL 2512 - 2601 contracts decreased by 10 to - 15 yuan/ton [17]. - Fundamental Data: In November, alumina production decreased by 4.44% to 743.94 million tons [17]. - Inventory: National alumina explicit inventory continued to accumulate [17]. Aluminum Alloy - Prices and Spread: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price remained unchanged at 21,700 yuan/ton [18]. - Monthly Spread: The spread between 2601 - 2602 contracts increased by 5 to - 50 yuan/ton [18]. - Fundamental Data: In November, recycled aluminum alloy ingot production increased by 5.74% to 68.20 million tons [18]. - Inventory: Recycled aluminum alloy weekly social inventory decreased by 0.54% to 5.53 million tons [18].