大越期货油脂早报-20251208

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. Sino-US relations remain tense, putting pressure on the prices of new US soybeans due to受挫 exports. Malaysian palm oil inventories are neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and import inventories are stable [2][3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - Soybean Oil - Fundamentals: The MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production in August decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and the month-end inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, and the production reduction is less than expected. Current shipping survey agencies show that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month. Subsequently, as it enters the production reduction season, the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease. [2] - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,394, and the basis is 128, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. [2] - Inventory: On September 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% higher year-on-year. [2] - Market: The futures price is running below the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is downward. [2] - Main Position: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased. [2] - Expectation: The price of soybean oil Y2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,000 - 8,400. [2] Daily View - Palm Oil - Fundamentals: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and the production reduction is less than expected. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil has increased by 4% month-on-month. Subsequently, as it enters the production increase season, the supply of palm oil will increase. [3] - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 8,768, and the basis is 2, indicating a slight spot premium. [3] - Inventory: On September 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous period and 34.1% lower year-on-year. [3] - Market: The futures price is running below the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is downward. [3] - Main Position: The short positions of the main palm oil contract have decreased. [3] - Expectation: The price of palm oil P2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,600 - 9,000. [3] Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - Fundamentals: The same MPOB report situation as above, with subsequent supply increase due to entering the production increase season. [4] - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9,975, and the basis is 357, indicating a significant spot premium. [4] - Inventory: On September 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% higher year-on-year. [4] - Market: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. [4] - Main Position: The long positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have increased. [4] - Expectation: The price of rapeseed oil OI2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,400 - 9,800. [4] Recent Bullish and Bearish Analysis - Bullish: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. There is a tremor season for palm oil. [5] - Bearish: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, and domestic inventories of oils and fats are continuously increasing. The macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high. [5] - Main Logic: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose. [5] Supply and Demand Indicators (Graphs) - Supply indicators include import soybean inventory, soybean oil inventory, soybean meal inventory, oil - mill soybean crushing, palm oil inventory, rapeseed oil inventory,菜籽 inventory, and domestic total inventory of oils and fats [6][7][9][11][17][19][21][23] - Demand indicators include soybean oil apparent consumption and soybean meal apparent consumption [13][15]