大越期货聚烯烃早报-20251208

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to show oscillatory trends today. The fundamentals of both are generally bearish, with oversupply situations. However, the strengthening propane prices are driving the market rebound. The downstream demand for both is relatively weak, and there are new productions coming on - stream in the fourth quarter. But they also have cost support [4][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs LLDPE Overview - Fundamentals: In October, the official PMI was 49, a 0.8 - point decline from the previous month, indicating a drop in manufacturing prosperity. OPEC+ decided to maintain the November production plan, increasing production by 137,000 barrels per day in December and suspending the increase from January to March 2026. Coal prices have fallen, improving coal - based profits. The Russia - Ukraine peace agreement has faced short - term setbacks, and oil prices are oscillating strongly. The demand for agricultural films is weak, and packaging film demand is mainly based on rigid needs, with some areas improving. The current LLDPE delivery spot price is 6680 (-60), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4] - Basis: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is 6, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.1%, which is neutral [4] - Inventory: The comprehensive PE inventory is 497,000 tons (-4000), which is bearish [4] - Market: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4] - Main Position: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is decreasing, which is bullish [4] - Expectation: The LLDPE main contract is oscillating and rebounding. The fundamentals show oversupply, but the strengthening propane prices are driving the market. The industrial inventory is neutral, and the downstream demand has declined. It is expected that PE will show an oscillatory trend today [4] - Likely Factors: Cost support is a bullish factor, while weak downstream demand year - on - year and new productions coming on - stream in the fourth quarter are bearish factors. The main logic is oversupply and domestic macro - policies [5] PP Overview - Fundamentals: Similar to LLDPE, the macro - situation shows a decline in manufacturing prosperity. In the supply - demand aspect, the demand for plastic weaving has entered the off - season and declined, while the demand for pipes is acceptable. The current PP delivery spot price is 6350 (-10), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [6] - Basis: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is 63, with a premium - discount ratio of 1.0%, which is bullish [6] - Inventory: The comprehensive PP inventory is 565,000 tons (+19000), which is bearish [6] - Market: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [6] - Main Position: The net short position of the PP main contract is increasing, which is bearish [6] - Expectation: The PP main contract is oscillating and rebounding. The fundamentals show oversupply, and the strengthening propane prices are driving the market. The industrial inventory is neutral, and the downstream demand is average. It is expected that PP will show an oscillatory trend today [6] - Likely Factors: Cost support is a bullish factor, while weak downstream demand year - on - year and new productions coming on - stream in the fourth quarter are bearish factors. The main logic is oversupply and domestic macro - policies [7] Spot and Futures Market Data - LLDPE: The spot delivery price is 6680 (-60), and the 01 - contract price is 6674 (-102). The basis is 6. The warehouse receipt is 11,332 (unchanged) [8] - PP: The spot delivery price is 6350 (-10), and the 01 - contract price is 6287 (-72). The basis is 63. The warehouse receipt is 15,722 (-146) [8] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - Polyethylene: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity has been increasing, with a planned 20.5% growth in 2025E. The production, net import, and apparent consumption have also shown certain trends, and the import dependence has generally decreased [13] - Polypropylene: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity has been growing, with an expected 11.0% growth in 2025E. The production, net import, and apparent consumption have their own trends, and the import dependence has decreased [15]