建信期货工业硅日报-20251208

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The industrial silicon futures price fluctuated within a narrow range, and the spot price remained stable. The market focus has shifted from production cuts in the southwest to the weakening demand. The industrial silicon industry lacks anti - involution policy expectations, and the futures market shows a bearish structure. Attention should be paid to the 8765 - 8840 range as a reference for long - short conversion [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Performance and Outlook - Market Performance: The closing price of Si2601 was 8,805 yuan/ton, with a decline of 1.12%. The trading volume was 170,669 lots, and the open interest was 196,943 lots, with a net increase of 3,924 lots [4]. - Spot Price: The 553 - grade silicon price in Sichuan was 9,350 yuan/ton, and the 553 (oxygen - passed) grade in Yunnan was 9,400 yuan/ton. The 421 - grade silicon price in Sichuan was 9,950 yuan/ton, 9,600 yuan/ton in Xinjiang, and 9,600 yuan/ton in Inner Mongolia [4]. - Outlook: Production cuts in the southwest have approached the seasonal low, while the operation in the northwest is basically stable, with a monthly output expected to be around 350,000 tons. Demand is weakening. The weekly output of polysilicon is 26,500 tons, a 3% week - on - week decrease, and the monthly output is expected to be within 115,000 - 120,000 tons. The average operating load rate of silicone monomers is 74.29%, a 2 - percentage - point decrease from last week. Alloy demand has entered the seasonal off - season [4]. 3.2 Market News - On December 5, 2025, the number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 7,288 lots, a net increase of 60 lots compared to the previous trading day [5]. - In October 2025, the export volume of industrial silicon was 45,073.36 tons, a 35.82% month - on - month decrease and a 30.78% year - on - year decrease [5]. - In October 2025, the export volume of China's primary silicone polyoxane was 40,600 tons, a 13.49% month - on - month decrease and a 5.65% year - on - year decrease. From January to October 2025, the cumulative export volume was 460,500 tons, a 1.51% year - on - year increase [5].