甲醇聚烯烃早报-20251208

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For methanol, with Iranian plants starting to shut down, the port and inland markets rebounded in resonance, the basis strengthened slightly, unloading was slow, and ports have been destocking for two consecutive weeks with many floating storage facilities. It is expected to return to inventory accumulation later. In November, Iran shipped 1.1 million tons, and it is difficult to reduce imports in December - January. The 01 contract on the futures market offers a risk - free arbitrage opportunity for imports, and it is believed that the 01 contract will end with high inventory. It is advisable to consider shorting the 01 contract and going long on the 05 contract when prices are high [1]. - For polyethylene, the inventory of the two major state - owned petrochemical companies is at a neutral level compared to the same period. The upstream of the two major state - owned petrochemical companies and coal - chemical enterprises are destocking, while social inventory remains flat. Downstream inventory of raw materials and finished products is also neutral. The overall inventory is neutral. The 09 contract basis is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. The overseas markets in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia are stable. The import profit is around - 200, and there is no further increase for now. The price of non - standard HD injection molding products is stable, other price spreads are volatile, and LD prices are weakening. The number of maintenance in September is the same as the previous month, and the domestic linear production has decreased recently. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and US quotes. The pressure from new plants in 2025 is significant, and the commissioning of new plants should be monitored [3]. - For polypropylene, the upstream inventory of the two major state - owned petrochemical companies and the middle - stream inventory are decreasing. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, the non - standard price spread is neutral, and the import profit is around - 700. Exports have been performing well this year. The non - standard price spread is neutral. The European and American markets are stable. The PDH profit is around - 400, propylene prices are volatile, and the powder production start - up rate is stable. The拉丝 production ratio is neutral. The subsequent supply is expected to increase slightly, downstream orders are currently average, and the raw material and finished product inventories of downstream enterprises are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the pressure on the 01 contract is expected to be moderately excessive. If exports continue to grow or there are more PDH plant maintenance, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [3]. - For PVC, the basis of the 01 contract is maintained at - 270, and the ex - factory basis is - 480. The downstream operating rate is seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold inventory at low prices is strong. The inventory of the middle and upstream is continuously accumulating. The Northwest plants have seasonal maintenance in summer, and the load center is between the spring maintenance and the high production in Q1. In Q4, attention should be paid to the implementation of new plant commissioning and the sustainability of exports. The recent export orders have decreased slightly. The sentiment in the coal market is positive, the cost of semi - coke is stable, and the profit of calcium carbide is under pressure due to PVC plant maintenance; the counter - offer for caustic soda exports is FOB380. Attention should be paid to whether subsequent export orders can support high - price caustic soda. The comprehensive profit of PVC is - 100. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, the cost is stable, the downstream performance is average, and the macro - environment is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and operating rates [3]. 3. Summary of Each Product Methanol - Price Data: From December 1 - 5, 2025, the power coal futures price remained at 801. The spot prices in different regions and other related prices such as CFR China and CFR Southeast Asia showed certain fluctuations, and the daily change of the basis was + 9. [1] - Market Situation: Iranian plants started to shut down, leading to a resonance rebound in the port and inland markets. The basis strengthened slightly, unloading was slow, and ports have been destocking for two consecutive weeks with many floating storage facilities. It is expected to return to inventory accumulation later. [1] Polyethylene - Price Data: From December 1 - 5, 2025, the prices of Northeast Asia ethylene remained at 740, and the prices of different types of polyethylene in various regions such as North China LL, East China LL showed different degrees of decline. The daily change of the主力期货 price was - 102, and the basis increased by 30. [3] - Market Situation: The inventory of the two major state - owned petrochemical companies is neutral compared to the same period. The upstream and coal - chemical enterprises are destocking, social inventory is flat, and downstream raw material and finished product inventories are neutral. The overall inventory is neutral. The overseas markets in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia are stable, and the import profit is around - 200 with no further increase. [3] Polypropylene - Price Data: From December 1 - 5, 2025, the price of Shandong propylene increased by 20, and the prices of various types of polypropylene in different regions such as East China PP and North China PP decreased to varying degrees. The daily change of the主力期货 price was - 72, and the basis increased by 10. [3] - Market Situation: The upstream and middle - stream inventories are decreasing. The basis is - 60, the non - standard price spread is neutral, and the import profit is around - 700. Exports have been good this year. The European and American markets are stable. The PDH profit is around - 400, propylene prices are volatile, and the powder production start - up rate is stable. [3] PVC - Price Data: From December 1 - 5, 2025, the prices of Northwest calcium carbide remained at 2550 on December 3 - 5, and the price of Shandong caustic soda remained at 742. The price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China decreased by 50. [3] - Market Situation: The basis of the 01 contract is - 270, and the ex - factory basis is - 480. The downstream operating rate is seasonally weakening, and the middle - and upstream inventories are accumulating. The Northwest plants have seasonal maintenance in summer, and in Q4, attention should be paid to new plant commissioning and export sustainability. [3]