氯碱周报：SH：供需仍存压力累库持续，预计价格偏弱运行，V：供应压力增长，价格延续底部震荡-20251208

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report Caustic Soda - The caustic soda industry still faces certain supply - demand pressures. Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises are operating at a high level, and there are still vehicle - queuing situations at major downstream enterprises. Enterprises have high inventories, and there are no short - term positive factors. The price is expected to be weak in the next week. In the East China region, supply will remain abundant, the traditional off - season for demand will continue, and exports are not significantly boosted. It is estimated that the price in East China will continue to decline. Overall, the demand side provides weak support, and there are still long - term supply - demand pressures. The price of caustic soda is expected to run weakly [2]. - Futures strategy advice: Adopt a bearish approach. - Options strategy advice: Stay on the sidelines. PVC - The supply pressure will not ease next week, and the operating rate still has room for improvement. The operating rate of pipe and profile products remains low, while the soft products will remain in high demand, and export orders may increase slightly. The cost - side support is expected to continue to strengthen, and the PVC market is expected to continue to operate in a range. From November to January of the following year is the traditional off - season for demand. As outdoor construction in the north gradually decreases in winter, the overall real - estate demand reduction still has a negative impact. In terms of exports, the inventory in the Indian region is currently at a high level, the purchasing enthusiasm is average, the international market competition is fierce, and the export boost is limited. The overall demand side provides weak support for PVC, the supply - demand situation remains in an oversupply pattern, the price is not optimistic, and although the absolute price is low, it is difficult to form a continuous upward drive. It is expected to continue the bottom - weakening pattern [3]. - Futures strategy advice: Treat rebounds with a bearish attitude. - Options strategy advice: Stay on the sidelines. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Caustic Soda Market Performance - The caustic soda market has shown various trends due to factors such as macro - environment changes, supply - demand relationships, and cost fluctuations. For example, the 8 - month contract repaired the basis, and the market accelerated its decline. The spot market was in a game, and there were concerns about the marginal weakening under the subsequent supply recovery, with the downstream demand being stable [6]. Supply - As of Thursday this week, the weekly weighted average operating load rate of sample enterprises in major regions across the country was 89.86%, a 0.17 - percentage - point increase from 89.69% last week. There were few chlor - alkali device overhauls this week, and the operating load rate increased slightly. In Shandong, it was 91.45%, a decrease of 0.21% [25]. - On December 3rd, the inventory of 32% liquid caustic soda of expanded sample enterprises in East China was 253,150 tons, a 3.16% decrease from 261,400 tons on November 26th. The inventory in Shandong decreased slightly due to some factories delivering goods to downstream, and the overall inventory in East China decreased. The inventory of 32% liquid caustic soda of expanded sample enterprises in Shandong was 120,400 tons, a 3.53% decrease from 124,800 tons on November 26th [25]. Device Dynamics - There are multiple caustic soda production enterprises with various overhaul situations, including long - term shutdowns, current overhauls, and future planned overhauls. For example, Wuhai Chemical in the Northwest has been shut down since July 22, 2023, and the start - up time is undetermined; Zhejiang Juhua in the East China has been operating at half - load since October 11, continuing until January 1, 2026 [26]. Downstream Demand - Alumina: From the end of 2024 to 2025, the planned alumina production capacity to be put into operation is 1.23 billion tons (including 200 million tons of replacement). It is estimated that the annual production capacity growth rate will be around 10%. The estimated annual alumina production in 2025 will be over 88 million tons, with a production growth rate of around 6%. The new alumina demand is estimated to require an additional 400,000 - 550,000 tons of caustic soda per year, and the total demand increase for caustic soda is around 800,000 tons, with a relatively concentrated demand increase of 150,000 tons from April to June [30]. - Currently, the domestic alumina futures and spot prices are both poor, market confidence has not been significantly restored, and it is expected that the price will maintain a weak adjustment trend, with the price operating in the range of 2,700 - 2,900 yuan/ton [34]. - Non - aluminum downstream industries: The textile operating rate has declined, while the viscose staple fiber operating rate has increased [49]. Export - In October, caustic soda exports weakened, and the estimated export profit declined [56]. PVC Market Performance - The PVC futures market has been affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, macro - sentiment, and cost. For example, due to the lack of positive supply - demand drivers and a poor commodity atmosphere, the futures price has continued to decline [63]. Profit - The industry profit of PVC has continued to deteriorate, and the profits of various production methods such as the calcium carbide method and ethylene method in East China and the northwest region have shown different degrees of decline [69]. Supply - This week, the operating load rate of the domestic PVC powder industry increased slightly. Only one enterprise had a temporary shutdown this week, and the previously overhauled enterprises gradually resumed production, resulting in a decrease in overhaul losses. The overall operating load rate of PVC powder this week was 79.01%, a 0.16 - percentage - point increase from last week; among them, the operating load rate of calcium carbide - based PVC powder was 82.09%, a 0.12 - percentage - point decrease; and the operating load rate of ethylene - based PVC powder was 71.92%, a 0.8 - percentage - point increase [85]. Device Dynamics - There are long - term shutdowns, current overhauls, and future planned overhauls of PVC production enterprises. For example, Taiwen Yanhua in North China has been shut down since September 30, 2022, and the start - up time is undetermined; Ningbo Hanwha in East China plans to conduct an overhaul from December 15th to December 28th [87]. Downstream Demand - The two major downstream industries of PVC, profiles and pipes, are facing great pressure. In addition to demand issues, they also face industry competition, so the industry's contribution is difficult to improve. The real - estate sector still provides negative demand feedback, and the domestic demand has not shown obvious improvement. The downstream orders are significantly lower than the average level of the past five years, and both raw material and finished product inventories are at high levels, so the PVC downstream is expected to lack positive drivers [93]. Inventory - The total PVC inventory is still at the highest level in recent years compared to the same period [101]. Export - In October 2025, the PVC export volume was 312,100 tons, with an average export price of 605 US dollars/ton. The cumulative export from January to October was 3.2338 million tons. The single - month export decreased by 9.91% month - on - month, increased by 34.28% year - on - year compared to the same month last year, and the cumulative export increased by 48.88% year - on - year. In October 2025, the PVC import volume was 10,900 tons, with an average import price of 725 US dollars/ton. The cumulative import from January to October was 186,400 tons. The single - month import decreased by 24.14% month - on - month, increased by 20.66% year - on - year compared to the same month last year, and the cumulative import increased by 1.74% year - on - year [119].