建信期货多晶硅日报-20251208

Group 1: Report Overview - Report date: December 08, 2025 [2] - Research team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [3] Group 2: Market Performance and Outlook - Market performance: The price of the main polysilicon contract dropped significantly. The closing price of the PS2601 contract was 55,510 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.96%. The trading volume was 159,380 lots, and the open interest was 97,991 lots, with a net decrease of 18,662 lots [4] - Spot price: The transaction price range of n-type polysilicon re-feeding materials was 49,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 53,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. The transaction price range of n-type granular silicon was 50,000 - 51,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 50,500 yuan/ton, also unchanged from the previous period [4] - Future outlook: The fundamentals have not improved. The production in December is expected to remain flat compared to the previous month. Profits are concentrated in the silicon material segment, but downstream segments are continuously lowering prices due to terminal pressure. Downstream enterprises are reducing production and controlling output. Spot prices remain stable, meeting the policy requirements for stability. The adjustment of the supply - demand relationship is difficult to improve through the industry's own driving force. Under the requirements of the exchange, the 01 contract continues to reduce positions, the short squeeze narrative cools down, and the futures price may run weakly and return to fluctuate around the spot price [4] Group 3: Market News - On December 05, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 1,560 lots, an increase of 10 lots from the previous trading day [5] - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association stated that it is working with industry enterprises, and relevant work is progressing steadily. Rumors on the Internet are false information. The association firmly safeguards national and industry interests and will fight against malicious short - selling of the photovoltaic industry [5] - The Silicon Industry Branch of the association estimated that the production in November was about 114,900 tons, a 14% decrease from 137,000 tons in October, and the production in December is expected to rebound to about 120,000 tons [5]