《黑色》日报-20251208

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel: The steel price is expected to maintain a volatile trend. The fluctuation range of rebar is 3000 - 3200 yuan/ton, and that of hot-rolled coil is 3200 - 3350 yuan/ton. Steel inventory continues to decline, with stronger basis and rising profits. The driving factors for the absolute price are the possible macro - expectation trading in the Politburo meeting in December and the impact of coking coal on steel costs. The long - rebar and short - iron ore arbitrage and the long - short spread arbitrage between rebar and hot - rolled coil can be held [1]. - Iron Ore: The iron ore futures will run weakly with fluctuations. It is recommended to short iron ore at high prices unilaterally. The operation range is 750 - 820 yuan/ton, and the iron ore 1 - 5 reverse spread arbitrage is recommended [4]. - Coke and Coking Coal: Both coke and coking coal futures are viewed as weakly volatile. The coke trading range is 1480 - 1630 yuan/ton, and the coking coal range is 950 - 1100 yuan/ton. The strategy of long - coke and short - coking coal is recommended [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar: Spot prices in East, North, and South China decreased by 10 yuan/ton. The 05, 10, and 01 contracts decreased by 18, 17, and 11 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - Hot - Rolled Coil: Spot prices in East and South China decreased by 10 yuan/ton, while that in North China remained unchanged. The 05, 10, and 01 contracts decreased by 12, 15, and 11 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Cost and Profit - Cost: The billet price remained unchanged at 2990 yuan/ton, and the slab price was 3730 yuan/ton. The cost of Jiangsu electric - furnace rebar increased by 1 yuan/ton, and the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar remained unchanged [1]. - Profit: The profits of East and South China rebar increased by 10 yuan/ton, while that of North China remained unchanged. The profits of East, North, and South China hot - rolled coils increased by 20, 10, and 10 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Production - The daily average pig iron output decreased by 2.4 tons to 232.3 tons, a decrease of 1.0%. The output of five major steel products decreased by 26.8 tons to 829.0 tons, a decrease of 3.1%. The rebar output decreased by 16.8 tons to 189.3 tons, a decrease of 8.1%, and the hot - rolled coil output decreased by 4.7 tons to 314.3 tons, a decrease of 1.5% [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 35.2 tons to 1365.6 tons, a decrease of 2.5%. The rebar inventory decreased by 27.7 tons to 503.8 tons, a decrease of 5.2%, and the hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 0.5 tons to 400.4 tons, a decrease of 0.1% [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume decreased by 0.6 tons to 8.8 tons, a decrease of 6.0%. The apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 23.8 tons to 864.2 tons, a decrease of 2.7%. The apparent demand for rebar decreased by 11.0 tons to 217.0 tons, a decrease of 4.8%, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coil decreased by 5.4 tons to 314.9 tons, a decrease of 1.7% [1]. Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - Warehouse Receipt Cost: The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore powders decreased slightly, with a decline of 0.1% - 1.0% [4]. - 01 Contract Basis: The basis of various iron ore powders increased, with an increase of 5.1% - 58.5% [4]. - Inter - Contract Spreads: The 5 - 9 spread increased by 1.0 to 25.0, a 4.2% increase; the 9 - 1 spread remained unchanged; the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 1.0 to 16.5, a 5.7% decrease [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 117.8 tons to 2699.3 tons, a 4.2% decrease. The global shipment volume increased by 44.8 tons to 3323.2 tons, a 1.4% increase. The national monthly import volume decreased by 500.6 tons to 11130.9 tons, a 4.3% decrease [4]. Demand - The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 2.4 tons to 232.3 tons, a 1.0% decrease. The 45 - port daily average port clearance volume decreased by 8.5 tons to 318.5 tons, a 2.6% decrease. The national monthly pig iron output decreased by 49.7 tons to 6554.9 tons, a 0.8% decrease, and the national monthly crude steel output decreased by 149.3 tons to 7199.7 tons, a 2.0% decrease [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 63.4 tons to 15300.81 tons, a 0.4% increase. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 42.3 tons to 8984.7 tons, a 0.5% increase. The inventory available days of 64 steel mills decreased by 1.0 to 19.0 days, a 5.0% decrease [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - Coke: The prices of Shanxi and Rizhao port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke remained unchanged. The 01 and 05 contracts of coke decreased by 36 and 44 yuan/ton respectively [6]. - Coking Coal: The prices of Shanxi medium - sulfur main coking coal and Mongolian 5 raw coal decreased slightly. The 01 and 05 contracts of coking coal decreased by 67 and 49 yuan/ton respectively [6]. Supply - Coke: The daily average output of full - sample coking plants increased by 0.8 tons to 64.5 tons, a 1.2% increase [6]. - Coking Coal: The output of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased slightly, with a 0.34% decrease [6]. Demand - The pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 2.4 tons to 232.3 tons, a 1.0% decrease [6]. Inventory - Coke: The inventory of full - sample coking plants increased by 4.7 tons to 76.4 tons, a 6.5% increase. The inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 20.1 tons to 127.6 tons, a 18.7% increase, and the port inventory decreased by 6.1 tons to 181.3 tons, a 3.3% decrease [6]. - Coking Coal: The inventory of full - sample coking plants decreased by 1.1 tons to 1009.2 tons, a 0.1% decrease. The inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 3.0 tons to 798.3 tons, a 0.4% decrease, and the port inventory decreased by 1.3 tons to 296.5 tons, a 0.4% decrease [6].