碳酸锂期货早报-20251208

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand of lithium carbonate is in a tight balance, and market sentiment fluctuates due to news. The lithium carbonate 2605 is expected to oscillate in the range of 88,900 - 92,620. The supply is expected to increase next month, and demand is expected to strengthen with potential inventory reduction. The cost - dominated situation has weakened [8][9][13]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - Supply: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 21,939 tons, a 0.33% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. In November 2025, production was 95,350 tons, and next - month's forecast is 98,210 tons, a 3.00% increase. November's import was 25,500 tons, and next - month's forecast is 27,000 tons, a 5.88% increase [8][9]. - Demand: Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 103,681 tons, a 0.63% week - on - week decrease, and that of ternary material sample enterprises was 18,842 tons, a 2.68% week - on - week decrease. Next month, demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may be reduced [8][9]. - Cost: The daily CIF price of 6% concentrate decreased, lower than the historical average. The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate was 93,764 yuan/ton, a 0.52% day - on - day decrease, with a loss of 1,559 yuan/ton. The cost of purchased lithium mica was 92,638 yuan/ton, unchanged day - on - day, with a loss of 2,982 yuan/ton. The cost of the recycling end is generally higher than that of the ore end, with low production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt - lake end is 31,477 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [10]. - Market Factors: Bullish factors include the production cut plan of lithium mica manufacturers and the decrease in lithium carbonate imports from Chile. Bearish factors are the high and limited - decline supply from the ore and salt - lake ends [11][12]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - Fundamentals: Neutral. - Basis: On December 5th, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 93,250 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 1,090 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures. Bullish. - Inventory: The total inventory was 113,602 tons, a 2.04% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average. The smelter inventory was 20,767 tons, a 14.62% week - on - week decrease, lower than the historical average. The downstream inventory was 43,695 tons, a 4.08% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. Other inventory was 49,140 tons, a 1.04% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average. Neutral. - Disk: The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed below the MA20. Neutral. - Main Position: The main position is net short, with an increase in short positions. Bearish [10]. 3.3 Carbonate Lithium Market Overview - Price and Basis: The futures closing prices and bases of different indicators showed various changes, with most prices decreasing and bases showing different degrees of increase or decrease. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 4.80% to 10,922 lots [16]. - Upstream Prices: The price of lithium spodumene (6%) decreased by 0.69% to 1,154 US dollars/ton. The price of lithium mica concentrate (2% - 2.5%) remained unchanged at 2,515 yuan/ton. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.80% to 93,250 yuan/ton, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.82% to 90,800 yuan/ton [16]. - Positive Material and Lithium Battery Prices: The prices of most positive materials and lithium batteries showed small fluctuations, with some increasing slightly and some decreasing slightly [16]. 3.4 Supply - Demand Data Overview - Supply - side: The weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate was 75.34%, unchanged. The monthly total production was 95,350 tons, a 3.35% increase. The production from lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt - lake, and recycling all increased to varying degrees [19]. - Demand - side: The monthly production of lithium iron phosphate was 348,500 tons, a 5.14% increase. The monthly production of lithium iron phosphate lithium was 412,850 tons, a 4.69% increase. The monthly production of ternary precursor decreased in some types. The monthly total loading volume of power batteries was 84,100 GWh, a 10.66% increase [19].