供需淡季，菜粕震荡回落

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal market is in a state of shock and decline, influenced by soybean meal trends and technical shock adjustments. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The spot demand peak season has passed, but low inventory supports the market. Due to the uncertainty of China - Canada trade negotiations, the market will maintain a range - bound shock in the short term, mainly affected by soybean meal [8]. - The short - term trading strategy for rapeseed meal futures is to be shock - biased strong. The RM2605 contract will fluctuate between 2300 and 2500 in the short term, and it is recommended to conduct short - term operations or wait and see. For options, sell out - of - the - money put options [12]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Prompt - Not provided in the content 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday. The spot market supply is expected to be tight in the short term, and the decreasing demand suppresses the market expectation. Canadian rapeseed has entered the harvesting stage, but China - Canada trade issues have reduced short - term exports and the domestic supply expectation [10]. - China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports has been established, and an import deposit of 75.8% has been imposed. The final ruling is still uncertain, and it depends on the further development of China - Canada trade relations [10]. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada where the output is higher than expected [10]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues. The decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production and the increase in Russian rapeseed production offset each other. There is still a possibility of an increase in global geopolitical conflicts, which supports commodities [10]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the low inventory pressure of oil mills' rapeseed meal [11]. - Bearish factors: The concentrated listing of domestic rapeseed and the uncertainty of the final result of China's anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports, with a small probability of reconciliation [11]. - Current main logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [11]. 4. Fundamental Data - Rapeseed supply and demand balance sheet: From 2014 to 2023, the harvest area, output, and total supply of rapeseed in China have shown certain fluctuations, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio also varies year by year [15]. - Rapeseed meal supply and demand balance sheet: From 2014 to 2023, the production, total supply, and demand of rapeseed meal in China have changed, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio has also fluctuated [17]. - Imported rapeseed: There is no ship arrival forecast in November, and the import cost is affected by tariffs [18]. - Oil mills: The rapeseed crushing volume remains at zero, the rapeseed inventory is at a low level, and the rapeseed meal inventory is also low [20][22]. - Aquaculture: The prices of aquatic fish have slightly declined, while the prices of shrimps and shellfish have remained stable [30]. 5. Position Data - Not provided in the content 6. Technical Analysis - Rapeseed meal is driven by soybean meal to decline in shock. The China - Canada trade relationship is still uncertain, and the short - term market has returned to shock. The KDJ and MACD indicators are declining in shock, and the short - term market is in a technical shock adjustment stage. Whether it will continue to decline or rebound depends on the rapeseed import policy and soybean meal trends [41]. 7. Next Week's Concerns - Most important: The harvesting weather conditions in the US soybean - producing areas, the export of Canadian rapeseed and domestic crushing demand, and the arrival and operation of imported soybeans and rapeseed in China [43]. - Second most important: The domestic demand for soybean meal and aquaculture, and the inventory of rapeseed meal in domestic oil mills and downstream procurement [43]. - Third most important: Macroeconomic factors and the Israel - Palestine conflict [43].