大越期货生猪期货早报-20251208

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of pigs and pork is expected to increase. The domestic market has entered the off - season of supply and demand after the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day. However, the recent increase in swine fever has led to a short - term increase in slaughter, suppressing pig prices. On the demand side, the overall consumer willingness of residents has weakened after the long holiday, suppressing short - term fresh pork consumption. But future demand for cured meat will support the price floor. The market this week may see an increase in both supply and demand, with pig prices expected to decline in the short term and maintain a range - bound pattern in the medium term. The expected price range for LH2603 is between 10,800 and 11,200 [8]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Hints - Not provided in the document 3.2 Recent News - The domestic pig consumption market is affected by the off - season. The spread of swine fever has increased pig slaughter, leading to an increase in supply. Spot prices are weak in the short term and will maintain a range - bound pattern in the medium term. After the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, pork demand has weakened in the short term. Spot prices are oscillating weakly due to increased supply. The room for further price decline is limited, and prices may bottom out and rebound. The loss of domestic pig farming profits has recently expanded, reducing the enthusiasm for slaughtering large pigs in the short term. The decrease in both supply and demand supports the short - term price expectations of pig futures and spot markets. Pig spot prices are oscillating downward, and futures are weak in the short term and may maintain a range - bound pattern in the medium term. Further observation of supply and demand growth is needed [10]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish Factors: The domestic pig supply has entered the off - season after the long holiday, and the room for further decline in domestic pig spot prices may be limited [11]. - Bearish Factors: The domestic macro - environment is expected to improve due to the preliminary Sino - US trade agreement, and the year - on - year increase in domestic pig inventory [11]. - Main Logic: The market focuses on pig slaughter and fresh meat demand [11]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - As of September 30, the pig inventory was 436.8 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.2% and a year - on - year increase of 2.3%. As of the end of September, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.35 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.01% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.66% [8]. - As of March 31, the pig inventory was 408.5 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 5.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.2%. As of the end of May 2024, the inventory of breeding sows was 39.96 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.2% [26]. 3.5 Position Data - The net position of the main force is short, and the short position is decreasing [8]. 3.6 Pig Futures and Spot Prices - The report provides data on pig futures prices (near - month 2601 and main 2603), pig futures warehouse receipts, and spot prices of ternary hybrid pigs in different regions from November 28 to December 5, 2025 [12]. 3.7 Pig Futures Market - Basis and Spread Trends - The report shows the trends of pig futures - spot basis and the spreads between different contracts (1 - 3, 1 - 5, 1 - 9) [13]. 3.8 Pig Spot Market - Average Prices of Different Specifications of Pigs - It presents the trends of the average prices of commodity pigs,白条, and the average pork prices in 36 cities, as well as the price trends of ternary hybrid pigs in different regions and the spread trends between standard and fat pigs [15][17][19]. 3.9 Pig Fundamental Analysis - Supply Side - Indicator Pig Prices: It shows the trends of the average prices of binary sows, 7 - kg piglets, and culled sows [21]. - Piglet Indicators: It presents the feed - to - meat ratio and survival rate of piglets [23]. - Rural Ministry of Agriculture Inventory: It shows the monthly pig inventory and its month - on - month trend, as well as the monthly inventory of breeding sows [25]. - Large - scale Farm Inventory: It shows the inventory trends of commodity pigs of different weight ranges in large - scale farms and the weekly proportion trends of pigs below 90 kg and above 150 kg [27][29]. - Pork Imports: It shows the monthly pork import trends [31]. - Fattening Costs: It shows the fattening cost trends (taking 100 - 120 kg as an example) [34]. - Feed Profit Expectations: It shows the weekly profit expectations of pig feed [37]. - Slaughter: It shows the monthly pig slaughter volume trends and the weekly average slaughter weight trends [39]. - Slaughter Profits: It shows the weekly pig slaughter profit trends [41]. - Profits: It shows the weekly profit trends of self - breeding and self - raising and purchasing piglets [43]. - Substitutes: It shows the price spread trends between pigs and beef, mutton, and chicken [45]. 3.10 Pig Fundamental Analysis - Slaughter Side - Prices: It shows the trends of the average price of白条, the price spread between live pigs and白条, the slaughter settlement price, and the average price in 36 cities [48][50]. - Slaughter Profits: It shows the weekly slaughter processing profit trends [52]. - Demand Slaughter: It shows the daily pig slaughter volume and the opening rate, as well as the weekly fresh - sales rate and frozen - product inventory rate trends of slaughtering enterprises [54][56]. 3.11 Pig Fundamental Analysis - Demand Side - Consumption Trends: The annual pork consumption volume has increased month - on - month, indicating a recovery in pork consumption preference due to price advantages [58][60]. 3.12 Pig Fundamental Analysis - Pig - to - Grain Ratio - It shows the trends of the pig - to - grain ratio [61]. 3.13 Pig Fundamental Analysis - Reserve Purchase and Release - Rising and Falling Trends: It shows the historical rising and falling trends of pig prices [65]. - Reserve Purchase Situation: It shows the pig reserve purchase situation from 2019 to 2024 [67]. - Reserve Release Situation: It shows the pig reserve release situation from 2019 to 2024 [69].