Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of soybean meal futures will fluctuate in the range of 2800 - 2860, and the price of soybean futures will fluctuate in the range of 4040 - 4140. The short - term trend of both is affected by factors such as Chinese soybean procurement, South American planting weather, and Sino - US trade agreements [9][11]. - The soybean meal market is affected by both positive and negative factors, and it is expected to maintain a range - bound shock in the short term, waiting for further guidance on US soybean production and the follow - up of Sino - US trade negotiations [13][15]. - The soybean market is also influenced by multiple factors, with the cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic demand providing support, while the expected bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and the increase in domestic production suppressing the upward space [16]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Tips - The soybean meal M2605 is expected to fluctuate between 2800 - 2860. The domestic soybean meal shows a narrow - range shock. The demand improves in the short term, and the spot price discount restricts the upward space of the futures price. It is expected to maintain a shock pattern in the short term. The basis is at a premium, the inventory is increasing, the price is below the 20 - day moving average, the short positions of the main force are decreasing, and the funds are flowing in [9]. - The soybean A2601 is expected to fluctuate between 4040 - 4140. The domestic soybean shows a shock - down trend. The cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic demand support the price, while the increase in domestic production restricts the upward space. The basis is slightly at a premium, the inventory is increasing, the price is below the 20 - day moving average, the short positions of the main force are decreasing, and the funds are flowing out [11]. 2. Recent News - The preliminary agreement on Sino - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans, but there are still uncertainties in China's procurement volume and US soybean weather. The domestic import of soybeans decreased in November, and the soybean inventory of oil mills also decreased from the high level. The profit of domestic pig farming decreased, and the demand for soybean meal weakened in November. Overall, soybean meal is expected to maintain a range - bound shock in the short term, waiting for further guidance on US soybean production and the follow - up of Sino - US trade negotiations [13]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns Bullish for Soybean Meal - The preliminary agreement on Sino - US trade negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans; the inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills is not under pressure; there are still uncertainties in the weather of US and South American soybean production areas [14]. Bearish for Soybean Meal - The total volume of imported soybeans in November remained at a relatively high level; under normal weather conditions, South American soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest [15]. Bullish for Soybeans - The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market; the expected increase in domestic demand for domestic soybeans supports the price [16]. Bearish for Soybeans - Brazilian soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest, and China has increased its procurement of Brazilian soybeans; the new - season domestic soybeans are expected to increase in production [16]. 4. Fundamental Data - The global soybean supply - demand balance shows that the harvest area, output, and total supply have generally increased in recent years, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio has also shown an upward trend [33]. - The domestic soybean supply - demand balance shows that the harvest area, output, and import volume have changed over the years, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio has fluctuated [34]. - The import volume of soybeans decreased from the high level in November but increased year - on - year overall. The soybean inventory of oil mills remained at a high level, and the soybean meal inventory returned to a high level. The unexecuted contracts of oil mills decreased to a low level, and the procurement demand decreased. The soybean crushing volume of oil mills decreased from the high level, and the soybean meal output in September increased year - on - year [49][50][52]. 5. Position Data - For soybean meal, the short positions of the main force decreased, and the funds flowed in. For soybeans, the short positions of the main force decreased, and the funds flowed out [9][11]. Other Information - The price of soybean meal futures fluctuated downwards, while the spot price was relatively stable, and the spot discount narrowed slightly. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in the spot market fluctuated slightly, and the price difference in the 2605 contract widened slightly [24][30]. - The cost of imported Brazilian soybeans fluctuated upwards following the US soybeans, and the profit on the futures market fluctuated slightly [56]. - The inventory of live pigs continued to rise, the inventory of sows was flat year - on - year and decreased slightly month - on - month. The price of live pigs fluctuated slightly recently, and the price of piglets remained weak. The proportion of large pigs in the domestic market increased, and the cost of secondary fattening of live pigs increased slightly. The profit of domestic pig farming decreased slightly [58][60][64].
豆粕早报-20251208
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-12-08 02:31