大越期货沥青期货周报-20251208

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the 02 contract showed a downward trend. The opening price on Monday was 2,988 yuan/ton, and the closing price on Friday was 2,948 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.33%. It is expected that next week, the demand recovery will be limited, while the supply will increase, and the cost support will strengthen. The futures market may experience a bullish and volatile adjustment [4][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Review and Outlook - Supply: In December 2025, the total planned asphalt production is 215.8 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.24%. This week, the domestic sample asphalt production capacity utilization rate was 30.0815%, a month - on - month increase of 0.599 percentage points. The national sample enterprise shipments were 28.06 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.06%. The sample enterprise production was 50.2 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.03%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 82.6 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.61%. It is expected that the supply pressure will increase next week [4]. - Demand: The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 27.9%, with no month - on - month change and lower than the historical average. The construction asphalt开工率 was 6.6%, with no month - on - month change and lower than the historical average. The modified asphalt开工率 was 9.2238%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.34 percentage points and lower than the historical average. The road - modified asphalt开工率 was 29%, with no month - on - month change and lower than the historical average. The waterproofing membrane开工率 was 34%, a month - on - month increase of 0.20 percentage points and lower than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [4]. - Cost: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 529.49 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 6.50%. The weekly Shandong local refinery delayed coking profit was 1,003.1686 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 9.05%. The asphalt processing loss increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased. With the strengthening of crude oil, it is expected that the short - term support will strengthen [6]. - Inventory: The social inventory was 74.5 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.74%. The in - plant inventory was 58.8 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.20%. The port diluted asphalt inventory was 67 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 17.54%. The social inventory continued to decline, while the in - plant and port inventories continued to accumulate [6]. 3.2 Technical Analysis - This week, the main 02 contract showed a downward trend. It is expected that next week, it may experience a bullish and volatile adjustment [105].