（豆粕周报12.1-12.5）：供应充裕，豆粕震荡回落-20251208

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The soybean meal market is expected to remain range - bound in the short term, influenced by factors such as the US - China trade agreement, South American soybean planting weather, and domestic demand [10]. - The soybean market will also experience short - term range - bound fluctuations, affected by the execution of the US - China trade agreement, imported soybean arrivals, and domestic soybean production [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Prompt No relevant content provided. 2. Recent News - The initial agreement in the US - China trade negotiation is a short - term positive for US soybeans, but there are still uncertainties in the follow - up negotiation and US soybean weather. The US soybean market is oscillating strongly above the 1000 - point mark in the short term [13]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China decreased from its high in November. The soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills remained high in November. After the initial agreement in the US - China trade negotiation, the arrival of imported soybeans at the end of the year increased, but domestic soybean meal demand is in the off - season [13]. - The decrease in domestic pig - farming profits has led to low expectations for pig restocking, suppressing the price of soybean meal in November. However, the initial agreement in the US - China trade negotiation is positive for US soybeans, and the cost of imported soybeans will rise at the end of the year [13]. - The high inventory of domestic oil mills' soybean meal is affected by the initial agreement in the US - China trade negotiation. In the short term, soybean meal is driven by US soybeans to oscillate strongly, and future trends await further guidance on US soybean production, South American soybean planting weather, and the follow - up of the US - China trade negotiation [13]. 3. Long and Short Concerns Soybean Meal - Likely Positive Factors: The initial agreement in the US - China trade negotiation is a short - term positive for US soybeans; the inventory of domestic oil mills' soybean meal is not under pressure; there are still uncertainties in the weather of US and South American soybean - producing areas [14]. - Likely Negative Factors: The total arrival volume of imported soybeans in China remained relatively high in November; with the start of soybean planting in Brazil, South American soybeans are expected to have a good harvest under normal weather conditions [15]. Soybeans - Likely Positive Factors: The rising cost of imported soybeans supports the domestic soybean market; the expected increase in domestic demand for domestic soybeans supports domestic soybean price expectations [16]. - Likely Negative Factors: After the initial agreement in the US - China trade negotiation, China will increase its purchase of US soybeans; the increase in the production of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses the price expectations of soybeans [16]. 4. Fundamental Data Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2015 to 2024, the harvest area, output, and total supply of global soybeans generally showed an upward trend, while the total consumption also increased steadily. The ending inventory and inventory - to - consumption ratio fluctuated [22]. USDA's Monthly Supply - Demand Reports in the Past Six Months - From April to November 2025, the planting area, yield per unit, and output of US soybeans showed certain fluctuations. The ending inventory, new - bean exports, and crushing volume also changed accordingly. The production of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans also had some changes [23]. US Soybean Planting, Growth, and Harvest Progress in 2024 - The sowing, emergence, flowering, pod - setting, leaf - falling, and harvesting progress of US soybeans in 2024 showed different trends compared with the same period last year and the five - year average, and the excellent - good rate also changed over time [24][25][26]. Brazilian and Argentine Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress - The planting and harvesting progress of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans from 2024/25 to 2025/26 showed different trends compared with the same period last year and the five - year average [27][28][29][31][32]. Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2015 to 2024, the harvest area, output, and import volume of domestic soybeans generally showed an upward trend, and the total supply and total consumption also increased. The ending inventory and inventory - to - consumption ratio fluctuated [38]. Domestic Imported Soybean Arrivals - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in November decreased from its high, with an overall year - on - year increase [39]. 5. Position Data No relevant content provided. 6. Trading Strategies Soybean Meal - Futures: US soybeans are oscillating around the 1100 - point mark in the short term, and soybean meal will remain range - bound in the short term. The M2605 contract will oscillate between 2700 and 2900 in the short term, and short - term trading within the range is recommended [17]. - Options: Sell slightly out - of - the - money put options [19]. Soybeans - Futures: The A2601 contract of soybeans will oscillate between 4000 and 4200. Short - term trading within the range is recommended [20]. - Options: Sell slightly out - of - the - money put options [20]. 7. Technical Analysis Soybeans - The soybean futures market is oscillating downward, affected by the trend of US soybeans and the relative stability of domestic soybean spot prices. Technical indicators such as KDJ and MACD are in the stage of oscillating consolidation, and the market is expected to return to range - bound fluctuations, awaiting new guidance [68]. Soybean Meal - The soybean meal futures market is oscillating downward, affected by the decline of US soybeans, uncertainties in the execution of the US - China trade agreement, and weak domestic demand in the short term. Technical indicators such as KDJ and MACD are in the stage of technical adjustment, and the market is expected to return to range - bound fluctuations, awaiting new guidance [71]. 8. Next Week's Concerns - Most Important: The planting weather in Brazilian soybean - producing areas, the follow - up execution of the US - China trade agreement, and the arrival and operation of imported soybeans in China [74]. - Second - most Important: The domestic demand for soybean meal, the inventory of domestic oil mills, and downstream procurement [75]. - Less Important: Macroeconomic factors, the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and the Israel - Palestine conflict [75].