大越期货白糖早报-20251208

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View - Multiple institutions predict a surplus in the global sugar market for the 2025/26 season, with different estimates ranging from 100 to 740 million tons. The current season's production, sales, and import data in China also show a bearish trend. However, factors such as increased syrup tariffs and the use of sucrose in US cola recipes are positive. The SR2601 contract is approaching delivery, and trading is recommended to shift to the SR2605 contract. The futures price is accelerating towards the bottom, and the current position has increased short - chasing risks. Wait patiently for a reversal signal before bottom - fishing [4][7][9]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Previous Day's Review No relevant information provided. 2. Daily Tips - Fundamentals: Multiple institutions predict a surplus in the 2025/26 global sugar market. In China, by the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 2024/25 season was 1116.21 million tons, cumulative sales were 1000 million tons, and the sales rate was 89.6%. In October 2025, China imported 75 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 21 million tons; the total import of syrup and premixes was 11.55 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.05 million tons. This is bearish [4]. - Basis: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5500 yuan/ton, and the basis for the SR2605 contract is 267 yuan/ton, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish [6]. - Inventory: As of the end of August 2024/25, the industrial inventory was 116 million tons, which is neutral [6]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [6]. - Main Position: The net short position is decreasing, and the main trend is unclear, which is bearish [6]. - Expected: The SR2601 contract is approaching delivery, and trading is recommended to shift to the SR2605 contract. The cost of imported sugar with full - tariff is around 5200 yuan/ton. The futures price is accelerating towards the bottom, and this round of decline is nearing the end. The risk of short - chasing at the current position increases, and wait patiently for a reversal signal before bottom - fishing [5][9]. 3. Matters to Watch Today No relevant information provided. 4. Fundamental Data - Supply and Demand Forecast: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 2025/26 global sugar supply and demand balance, with surpluses ranging from 100 to 740 million tons. In China, the sugar production, sales, and import data for the 2024/25 and 2025/26 seasons are also presented, showing a complex supply - demand situation [4][9]. - Price and Cost: The import cost of raw sugar processed with 50% tariff and the domestic and international sugar prices are provided, showing the impact of price changes on the sugar market [9][42]. - Sugarcane and Beet Data: Information on sugarcane and beet planting, harvesting areas, yields, and sugar production in China from 2024/25 to 2025/26 is presented [37]. 5. Position Data No relevant information provided.