建信期货钢材日评-20251208

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - On December 5, the main contracts of rebar and hot-rolled coil futures 2605 oscillated and declined. The supply and demand of steel products have been weak recently. The production of the five major steel products reached a new low since late February, but due to limited demand decline, social inventory has continued to decline to a new low since mid-August. The cost of steel products has loosened but the decline is not significant. It is expected that the steel futures will still oscillate strongly after the decline [6][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Futures Market: On December 5, the main contracts of rebar and hot-rolled coil futures 2605 oscillated and declined. The closing prices of RB2605 and HC2605 were 3157 yuan/ton and 3320 yuan/ton respectively, with a decline of 0.13% and 0.00% respectively. The closing price of SS2601 was 12500 yuan/ton, with an increase of 0.52%. The trading volume of RB2605, HC2605, and SS2601 was 680,567 lots, 290,472 lots, and 109,509 lots respectively. The positions of RB2605 and HC2605 increased by 62,636 lots and 32,149 lots respectively, while the position of SS2601 decreased by 6,662 lots [5]. - Spot Market: On December 5, the prices of a small number of rebar spot markets fluctuated up and down, and the prices of individual hot-rolled coil spot markets declined. The prices of rebar in Shenyang, Changchun, Harbin, and Chongqing markets increased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton, while the prices of rebar in Hangzhou, Nanchang, and Changsha markets decreased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton. The price of hot-rolled coil in Shanghai market decreased by 10 yuan/ton [8]. - Technical Analysis: The daily KDJ indicators of rebar and hot-rolled coil 2605 contracts showed a divergent trend, with the J and K values turning down and the D value continuing to rise. The daily KDJ indicator of the hot-rolled coil 2605 contract had a dead cross trend. The red bars of the daily MACD of rebar and hot-rolled coil 2605 contracts both narrowed [8]. 3.2 Future Outlook - Fundamentals: Recently, both supply and demand have been weak. The production of the five major steel products reached a new low since late February, but due to limited demand decline, social inventory has continued to decline to a new low since mid-August. Since November 25, the price of iron ore has fluctuated slightly at a high level, but the price of coal and coke has declined. Under the situation of one strong and one weak, the cost of steel products has loosened but the decline is not significant [9]. - Raw Materials: The inventory of iron ore at ports has increased to 153 million tons, reaching a new high since the end of February, but the arrival volume in the past 4 weeks has decreased by 3.2% month-on-month. The coke production of independent coking enterprises has rebounded from a low level in the past 2 weeks, but the decline in coking coal prices has led to continuous profitability of coking enterprises for 3 weeks, and the first round of price cuts for coke spot has been implemented. The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal has declined in late November. As of November 29, the 10-day moving average data has decreased by 35,800 tons or 20.1% compared with November 19 [10]. - Future Forecast: It is expected that the steel futures will still oscillate strongly after the decline. Attention should be paid to whether the steel mill's profit can further recover, the inventory accumulation of iron ore at ports, the replenishment rhythm of the downstream of coal and coke, the change in coking coal transactions, and the game direction of coke spot prices [10]. 3.3 Industry News - Coal Transportation: In November, the railway department made every effort to ensure the transportation of winter coal. The national railway sent a total of 184 million tons of coal, a year-on-year increase of 0.3%, including 128 million tons of thermal coal, maintaining a high level. The freight volume of the Datong - Qinhuangdao Line was 37.22 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%; the freight volume of the Tangshan - Baotou Line was 11.49 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 22.7%; the freight volume of the Wanan - Rizhao Line was 13.4 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%; the freight volume of the Haoji Line was 10.43 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 11.1% [11]. - Steel Industry PMI: On December 1, the Hebei Metallurgical Industry Association released that the PMI of the provincial steel industry in November 2025 was 49.1%, a month-on-month increase of 0.3 percentage points, still below the boom - bust line [11]. - Corporate Equity Pledge: Seiko Steel Structure announced that recently, its controlling shareholder, Seiko Holdings, released 40 million shares of the company, accounting for 16.87% of the shares it held and 2.01% of the company's total share capital. On the same day, it pledged 26 million shares to Bohai Bank Shaoxing Branch, accounting for 10.97% of the shares it held and 1.31% of the company's total share capital, for production and operation [11]. - Regional Policies: Shandong will strive to build two high - quality steel bases in Rizhao - Linyi and Laiwu - Tai'an, and build supporting projects such as Yongfeng Steel - Coke Integration. The proportion of coastal crude steel production capacity will increase from the current 53% to over 65%, and the number of 10 - million - ton steel enterprises will reach 3, with the proportion of high - end high - quality steel exceeding 50% [12]. - International Trade: On December 1, 2025, the US Department of Commerce launched a second anti - dumping sunset review investigation on non - oriented electrical steel imported from China, Germany, Japan, South Korea, Sweden, and Chinese Taipei, and a second countervailing sunset review investigation on non - oriented electrical steel imported from China and Chinese Taipei. On November 24, 2025, the South Korean Ministry of Strategy and Finance announced that it would impose an anti - dumping duty of 27.91% - 34.10% on hot - rolled carbon or alloy steel plates originating from China for a period of five years. On December 3, the Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA) made an anti - dumping final ruling on carbon steel wires and alloy steel wires originating from or imported from 9 countries including China, India, Italy, Malaysia, Portugal, Spain, Thailand, Turkey, Vietnam, and Chinese Taipei [12]. - Commodity Trade Data: From January to November 2025, Mongolia's iron ore export volume totaled 8.0676 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.45%, and the export value was 584 million US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 6.27%. As of November, Mongolia's cumulative coal export volume in the first 11 months of this year still showed a year - on - year increase, reaching 79.0891 million tons, an increase of 1.7138 million tons or 2.21% compared with the same period last year. In October 2025, Australia's coal export value was 5.657 billion Australian dollars, a month - on - month increase of 2.49%, and a year - on - year decrease of 11.22%. From January to October, the cumulative export value was 52.347 billion Australian dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 26.46%. In November 2025, the total coal export volume of the three major terminals in North Queensland, Australia, was 11.5456 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.85% and a month - on - month increase of 9.73%. In November 2025, Russia's railway transported 14.616 million tons of export coal, a month - on - month decrease of 4.95% and a year - on - year increase of 4.32%. From January to November this year, the cumulative transportation of export coal was 160 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.44% [12][13]. 3.4 Data Overview The report provides multiple data charts, including the spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in major markets, the weekly production of the five major steel products, the inventory of steel mills and social inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coil, the blast furnace and electric furnace operating rates and capacity utilization rates, the national daily average pig iron production, the apparent consumption of the five major steel products, and the basis between Shanghai rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and the May contracts. All the data sources are from Mysteel and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [14][16][19][25][29][33].