大越期货沪镍、不锈钢周报-20251208

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, nickel prices fluctuated with a slight upward trend, and spot trading was average. Some production capacities were cut recently, reducing supply pressure. In the industrial chain, the nickel ore tender in Indonesia was finalized, with nickel ore prices slightly declining and ocean freight remaining flat. The RKAB quota in Indonesia for 2026 is expected to be 3.19 billion tons, indicating an expected supply surplus. Nickel iron prices remained stable with a slight decline, and the cost line stopped falling and stabilized. Stainless steel inventories decreased slightly. Refined nickel inventories remained at a high level, and the surplus pattern remained unchanged. Although the production and sales data of new energy vehicles were good, the overall boost to nickel demand was limited [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Viewpoints and Strategies - Viewpoints: Nickel prices fluctuated with a slight upward trend, and spot trading was average. Some production capacities were cut, reducing supply pressure. In the industrial chain, the nickel ore tender in Indonesia was finalized, with nickel ore prices slightly declining and ocean freight remaining flat. The RKAB quota in Indonesia for 2026 is expected to be 3.19 billion tons, indicating an expected supply surplus. Nickel iron prices remained stable with a slight decline, and the cost line stopped falling and stabilized. Stainless steel inventories decreased slightly. Refined nickel inventories remained at a high level, and the surplus pattern remained unchanged. Although the production and sales data of new energy vehicles were good, the overall boost to nickel demand was limited [8]. - Operation Strategies: The main contract of Shanghai nickel will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average, and for the medium - and long - term, sell on rebounds. The main contract of stainless steel will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average [9][10]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Industry Chain Weekly Price Changes - Nickel ore prices decreased. Red soil nickel ore (CIF) NI1.5%, Fe30 - 35% dropped from $56 to $54, a decrease of 3.57%; red soil nickel ore (CIF) NI1.4%, Fe30 - 35% dropped from $50 to $48, a decrease of 4.00%. The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate dropped from $26,750 to $26,450, a decrease of 1.12%, while the price of electroplating - grade nickel sulfate remained unchanged at $29,500. Low - nickel iron (Shandong) remained unchanged at $3,300/ton, and high - nickel iron (Shandong) dropped from $895/ton to $890/ton, a decrease of 0.56%. Shanghai electrolytic nickel increased from $122,150 to $122,570, an increase of 0.34%; Shanghai Russian nickel increased from $117,900 to $118,320, an increase of 0.36%; Jinchuan's ex - factory price increased from $121,600 to $122,700, an increase of 0.90%. The price of 304 stainless steel remained unchanged at $13,275 [13][14]. 3.2.2 Nickel Ore Market Conditions - Nickel ore prices decreased by $2/wet ton this week, and ocean freight remained the same as last week. As of December 4, 2025, the total nickel ore inventory at 14 ports in China was 14.6971 million wet tons, a decrease of 176,200 wet tons or 1.18% from the previous period. In October 2025, the nickel ore import volume was 4.6828 million tons, a decrease of 1.4316 million tons or 23.41% from the previous month, but an increase of 462,800 tons or 10.97% year - on - year. The nickel ore tender was finalized this week, and the price of Indonesian nickel ore decreased slightly, with downstream purchasing based on rigid demand [17][18]. 3.2.3 Electrolytic Nickel Market Conditions - Nickel prices fluctuated with a slight upward trend, and spot trading was average. After some production cuts, the surplus narrowed, but the supply pressure remained strong. Globally, the nickel market is expected to remain in a supply - surplus pattern dominated by low - cost Indonesian production capacities. Traditional demand such as stainless steel has weak growth, but the high - nickel trend in the new energy field will provide key structural support. In November 2025, China's refined nickel production was 28,392 tons, a decrease of 14.85% from the previous month and 15.27% year - on - year. LME inventories decreased by 1,644 tons to 253,116 tons, while SHFE inventories increased by 1,726 tons to 42,508 tons [23][26][38]. 3.2.4 Nickel Iron Market Conditions - Nickel iron prices stopped falling and remained stable. Low - nickel iron prices remained unchanged at $3,300/ton, and high - nickel iron prices dropped. In October 2025, China's nickel pig iron actual production in metal terms was 22,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.43% but a year - on - year decrease of 8.5%. In October 2025, China's nickel iron import volume was 905,000 tons, a decrease of 180,000 tons or 16.6% from the previous month, but an increase of 214,000 tons or 31.0% year - on - year. The nickel iron inventory in October was 209,100 physical tons, equivalent to 19,800 tons of nickel [42][46][49]. 3.2.5 Stainless Steel Market Conditions - The price of 304 stainless steel remained unchanged. In October, stainless steel crude steel production was 3.4267 million tons. The latest stainless steel import volume was 124,100 tons, and the export volume was 358,100 tons. As of December 5, the inventory in Wuxi was 576,400 tons, the inventory in Foshan was 346,300 tons, and the national inventory was 1.0803 million tons, a decrease of 5,800 tons from the previous period [58][62][68]. 3.2.6 New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales - In October, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.772 million and 1.715 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 21.1% and 20% respectively. From January to October, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 13.015 million and 12.943 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 33.1% and 32.7% respectively. In October, the production and sales of power and other batteries were 170.6 GWh and 166 GWh respectively, a month - on - month increase of 12.9% and 13.3% respectively, and a year - on - year increase of 50.5% and 50.8% respectively [73][76]. 3.3 Technical Analysis - From the daily K - line, the price fluctuated slightly above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average continued to move downward. In terms of positions, the increase was limited, indicating that short - selling forces did not suppress the price again. From the indicators, MACD maintained an upward trend, while KDJ entered the overbought zone and needed to adjust. Overall, the price will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average [79]. 3.4 Industry Chain Summary - The impact of each link on nickel prices: nickel ore is neutral; nickel iron is neutral to bearish; refined nickel is neutral to bearish; stainless steel is neutral; new energy is neutral to bearish. The trading strategy is that the main contract of Shanghai nickel will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average, and for the medium - and long - term, sell on rebounds. The main contract of stainless steel will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average [82][84][85].