广发期货《黑色》日报-20251208

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report Steel Industry - The steel price is expected to maintain a volatile trend, with the fluctuation range of rebar referring to 3000 - 3200 and that of hot-rolled coils referring to 3200 - 3350. The steel inventory continues to decline, mainly reflected in the strengthening of the basis and the increase in profits. Attention should be paid to the possible macro - expectation trading in the December Politburo meeting and the drag of coking coal on steel prices from the cost side. The long - rebar and short - iron ore arbitrage can be continued to hold, and the near - month spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar can also be held [1]. Iron Ore Industry - The iron ore futures will run weakly in a volatile manner. It is recommended to short iron ore at high prices on a single side, and the arbitrage suggestion is to conduct the 1 - 5 reverse spread of iron ore. Although there is support from downstream restocking and basis repair needs, considering the high price level, the market situation is still weak [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - Both coke and coking coal futures are expected to run in a weakly volatile manner. For coke, the range reference is 1480 - 1630, and for coking coal, it is 950 - 1100. The arbitrage strategy for both is to go long on coke and short on coking coal [6]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices generally declined. For example, the rebar spot price in East China dropped from 3300 to 3290 yuan/ton, and the rebar 05 contract price decreased from 3175 to 3157 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - The billet price remained unchanged at 2990 yuan/ton, and the slab price was 3730 yuan/ton with no change. The profits of different regions and varieties showed different trends, such as the East China hot - rolled coil profit increasing by 20, and the North China rebar profit remaining unchanged at - 109 [1]. Production - The daily average hot metal output decreased by 2.4 to 232.3 tons, a decrease of 1.0%. The output of five major steel products decreased by 26.8 to 829.0 tons, a decrease of 3.1%. The rebar output decreased by 16.8 to 189.3 tons, a decrease of 8.1%, and the hot - rolled coil output decreased by 4.7 to 314.3 tons, a decrease of 1.5% [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 35.2 to 1365.6 tons, a decrease of 2.5%. The rebar inventory decreased by 27.7 to 503.8 tons, a decrease of 5.2%, and the hot - rolled coil inventory decreased slightly by 0.5 to 400.4 tons, a decrease of 0.1% [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume decreased by 0.6 to 8.8 tons, a decrease of 6.0%. The apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 23.8 to 864.2 tons, a decrease of 2.7%. The apparent demand for rebar decreased by 11.0 to 217.0 tons, a decrease of 4.8%, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils decreased by 5.4 to 314.9 tons, a decrease of 1.7% [1]. Iron Ore Industry Price and Spread - The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore types generally declined, such as the warehouse receipt cost of Carajas fines dropping from 796.7 to 789.0 yuan/ton. The basis of the 01 contract for different iron ore types increased, and the 5 - 9 spread increased slightly [4]. Supply - The 45 - port weekly arrival volume decreased by 117.8 to 2699.3 tons, a decrease of 4.2%, while the global weekly shipping volume increased by 44.8 to 3323.2 tons, an increase of 1.4%. The national monthly import volume decreased by 500.6 to 11130.9 tons, a decrease of 4.3% [4]. Demand - The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills decreased by 2.4 to 232.3 tons, a decrease of 1.0%. The 45 - port daily average port clearance volume decreased by 8.5 to 318.5 tons, a decrease of 2.6%. The national monthly pig iron output and crude steel output also decreased [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 63.4 to 15300.81 tons, an increase of 0.4%. The import ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 42.3 to 8984.7 tons, an increase of 0.5%, and the inventory available days of 64 steel mills decreased by 1.0 to 19.0 days, a decrease of 5.0% [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Price and Spread - The prices of coke and coking coal futures and spot showed different trends. For example, the coke 01 contract price decreased from 1092 to 1056 yuan/ton, and the coking coal 01 contract price decreased from 1652 to 1585 yuan/ton [6]. Supply - The weekly coke output increased slightly, and the weekly output of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased slightly. There were changes in the production status of some coal mines, with 3 mines suspending production and 4 mines resuming production [6]. Demand - The hot metal output decreased, and the demand for coke was affected. The coking profit was repaired, and the coking plant's operating rate increased slightly [6]. Inventory - The coke inventory of coking plants increased, while the inventory of ports and steel mills decreased. The coking coal inventory of coking enterprises and steel mills decreased, while that of coal mines, coal washing plants, ports, and ports increased [6].