Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views Tin - Considering the strong fundamentals, tin prices are expected to remain strong throughout the year. Maintain a bullish view on tin prices, hold existing long positions, and consider buying on dips. Continuously monitor macroeconomic changes and supply - side dynamics [1] Nickel - The nickel market is temporarily stable. After the price valuation is restored, the upward driving force is weak. The decline of the Indonesian nickel ore benchmark price and the accelerating inventory accumulation in China restrict the upside space of prices. In the short - term, the nickel price is expected to fluctuate within a range, with the main contract reference range of 116,000 - 120,000. Pay attention to macro - expectations and Indonesian industrial policy news [3] Stainless Steel - The stainless steel market is temporarily stable. The supply pressure eases slightly, but the demand is weak in the off - season and the inventory reduction is difficult. In the short - term, the low valuation and improved market sentiment will lead to a certain price recovery, but the driving force is limited. The price is expected to fluctuate and adjust, with the main contract reference range of 12,400 - 12,800. Follow the implementation of steel mill production cuts and nickel - iron transactions [5] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market has a weak short - term outlook. Although the fundamentals support prices in the short - term, there are limited new positive factors. Facing the resumption of production by large manufacturers and the sustainability of off - season demand, the upward driving force may gradually weaken. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term, with the main contract reference range of 90,000 - 95,000 [7] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon market is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation. The price is mainly expected to fluctuate between 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton. If the price drops to around 8,500 - 8,700 yuan/ton, consider buying on dips [9] Polysilicon - The polysilicon market is likely to experience high - level fluctuations. Given the weak demand, the spot price has limited upward momentum, and the futures price is more likely to decline and converge with the spot price. It is recommended to wait and see, and hold existing short positions if any [11] Zinc - In the zinc market, the downward trend of TC eases the supply pressure, and the short - term price has limited downside space. The export of refined zinc tightens the spot market and boosts the domestic zinc price. In the short - term, the Shanghai zinc price may be stronger than the London zinc price. Pay attention to the TC inflection point and refined zinc inventory changes. The main contract reference range is 22,500 - 23,500 [13] Copper - In the copper market, the imbalance of global copper supply and inventory drives the price up rapidly in the short - term, with increased price volatility. In the medium - to long - term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the price center. The main contract should focus on the support level of 90,000 - 91,000 [15] Alumina - The alumina market is in a state of oversupply, and the price is expected to maintain a bottom - level oscillation. The main contract reference range is lowered to 2,550 - 2,800 yuan/ton. The key to a rebound lies in the actual production cuts of enterprises and the inflection point of inventory [17] Aluminum - In the aluminum market, supported by strong macro - expectations and supply risks, the price is expected to remain strong in the short - term. However, high prices may suppress terminal consumption, and there is a risk of a pull - back after the price peaks. The Shanghai aluminum main contract is expected to oscillate between 21,700 - 22,500 yuan/ton next week. Pay attention to the Fed's interest - rate decision and domestic inventory reduction [17] Aluminum Alloy - The aluminum alloy market is expected to maintain a high - level narrow - range oscillation. The strong cost support limits the downside space of the ADC12 price, while high inventory and high prices restrict the upside. The main contract reference range is 20,800 - 21,600 yuan/ton. Focus on the improvement of scrap aluminum supply and downstream purchasing rhythm [18] Summary by Directory Tin - Spot Price and Basis: SMM 1 tin price dropped to 314,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.88%; SMM 1 tin premium dropped to 50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75% [1] - Internal - External Price Ratio and Import Profit and Loss: The import loss was 16,618.50 yuan/ton, a reduction of 4.56% [1] - Monthly Spread: The spread between 2512 - 2601 contracts rose to - 550 yuan/ton, an increase of 22.54% [1] - Fundamental Data: In October, tin ore imports increased by 33.49%, SMM refined tin production increased by 53.09%, and refined tin imports decreased by 58.55% [1] - Inventory Changes: SHEF weekly inventory increased by 7.96% to 6,865 tons, and social inventory increased by 2.39% to 8,012 tons [1] Nickel - Price and Basis: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price dropped to 120,050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.29% [3] - Electrowinning Nickel Cost: The cost of integrated MHP - produced electrowinning nickel increased to 111,026 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.19% [3] - New Energy Material Prices: The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate dropped to 27,530 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.04% [3] - Monthly Spread: The spread between 2601 - 2602 contracts rose to - 160 yuan/ton [3] - Supply - Demand and Inventory: China's refined nickel output decreased by 9.38% to 33,342 tons, and refined nickel imports decreased by 65.66% to 9,741 tons. SHFE inventory increased by 4.23% to 42,508 tons [3] Stainless Steel - Price and Basis: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged at 12,700 yuan/ton [5] - Raw Material Prices: The average price of Philippine laterite nickel ore (1.5%, CIF) remained unchanged at 57 US dollars/wet ton [5] - Monthly Spread: The spread between 2601 - 2602 contracts rose to - 90 yuan/ton [5] - Fundamental Data: China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel output decreased by 0.72% to 178.70 million tons, and stainless - steel exports decreased by 14.43% to 35.81 million tons [5] Lithium Carbonate - Price and Basis: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate dropped to 93,250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.80% [7] - Monthly Spread: The spread between 2512 - 2601 contracts rose to - 80 yuan/ton [7] - Fundamental Data: In November, lithium carbonate production increased by 3.35% to 95,350 tons, and demand increased by 5.11% to 133,451 tons [7] Industrial Silicon - Spot Price and Main Contract Basis: The price of East China oxygen - containing SI5530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9,450 yuan/ton [9] - Monthly Spread: The spread between 2512 - 2601 contracts rose to 155 yuan/ton, an increase of 210% [9] - Fundamental Data: National industrial silicon output decreased by 11.17% to 40.17 million tons, and the export volume decreased by 35.82% to 4.51 million tons [9] - Inventory Changes: Xinjiang factory - warehouse inventory increased by 2.82% to 12.38 million tons, and social inventory increased by 1.45% to 55.80 million tons [9] Polysilicon - Spot Price and Main Contract Basis: The average price of N - type re -投料 remained unchanged at 52,300 yuan/kg [11] - Futures Price and Monthly Spread: The main contract price dropped to 55,510 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.47% [11] - Fundamental Data: Weekly polysilicon output increased by 7.50% to 2.58 million tons, and monthly polysilicon output decreased by 14.48% to 11.46 million tons [11] - Inventory Changes: Polysilicon inventory increased by 3.56% to 29.10 million tons, and silicon wafer inventory increased by 9.23% to 21.30 GW [11] Zinc - Price and Basis: The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot rose to 23,130 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.61% [13] - Ratio and Profit - Loss: The import loss increased to 4,879 yuan/ton [13] - Monthly Spread: The spread between 2512 - 2601 contracts rose to - 40 yuan/ton [13] - Fundamental Data: In November, refined zinc production decreased by 3.56% to 59.52 million tons, and the galvanizing start - up rate increased to 58.20% [13] - Inventory Changes: China's seven - region social zinc ingot inventory decreased by 5.27% to 14.03 million tons, and LME inventory increased by 1.93% to 5.5 million tons [13] Copper - Price and Basis: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper rose to 91,282 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.37% [15] - Refined - Scrap Price Difference: The refined - scrap price difference rose to 5,510 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.14% [15] - Monthly Spread: The spread between 2512 - 2601 contracts dropped to - 60 yuan/ton [15] - Fundamental Data: In November, electrolytic copper production increased by 1.05% to 110.31 million tons, and the import volume decreased by 15.61% to 28.21 million tons [15] - Inventory Changes: Domestic social inventory decreased by 8.41% to 15.89 million tons, and SHFE inventory decreased by 9.22% to 8.89 million tons [15] Alumina - Price and Spread: The average price of SMM A00 aluminum rose to 22,090 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.32% [17] - Ratio and Profit - Loss: The electrolytic aluminum import loss decreased to 1,753 yuan/ton [17] - Monthly Spread: The spread between AL 2512 - 2601 contracts dropped to - 15 yuan/ton [17] - Fundamental Data: In November, alumina production decreased by 4.44% to 743.94 million tons, and domestic electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 2.82% to 363.66 million tons [17] - Inventory Changes: China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory remained unchanged at 59.60 million tons, and LME inventory decreased by 0.49% to 52.8 million tons [17] Aluminum Alloy - Price and Spread: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 21,700 yuan/ton [18] - Refined - Scrap Price Difference: The refined - scrap price difference of Foshan crushed primary aluminum rose to 1,814 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.72% [18] - Monthly Spread: The spread between 2601 - 2602 contracts rose to - 50 yuan/ton [18] - Fundamental Data: In November, recycled aluminum alloy ingot production increased by 5.74% to 68.20 million tons, and the recycled aluminum alloy start - up rate increased by 6.93% to 59.71% [18] - Inventory Changes: The weekly social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 0.54% to 5.53 million tons [18]
广发期货《有色》日报-20251208
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-12-08 06:04